Lens have lost two of their three league phase games without reply. Their xG conceded tally puts them outside of the UCL’s top 24 teams too.
Best bets for Lens vs Como
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50 with 1xBet
- Como (1st goal) at odds of 1.83 with 1xBet
- Nico Paz anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.50 with 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Lens 0-2 Como
- Goalscorers prediction: Como: Paz, Douvikas
Lens entertain Champions League debutants Como 1907 this week, with their league phase campaign at risk of slipping away.
It’s been a turbulent start to 2026/27 for Lens. Dino Toppmöller departed after just six games at the helm in September, with Yannick Cahuzac eventually becoming permanent boss after an interim spell in charge. Lens have just 13 points from nine Ligue 1 games and average just one point per game in the UCL.
They won their first game of the league phase in Prague. However, they have since slipped to disappointing 2-0 and 3-0 defeats to Sporting and Club Brugge, respectively. On the player availability front, Odsonne Edouard is out until January after surgery. Maik Nawrocki will not feature again until May. Abdallah Sima and Ismaelo Ganiou are also sidelined.
Como, meanwhile, travel to France in excellent form. Cesc Fabregas’s side have won five consecutive matches in all competitions.
A 1-0 victory over Venezia was the latest. They thrashed Manchester United 4-1 last month and sit fourth in Serie A. Fabregas will once again be without the services of Moise Kean (muscle), Assane Diao (thigh) and Trevoh Chalobah (muscle) for the trip to France. Jesus Rodriguez (muscle) is also absent.
Probable lineups for Lens vs Como
RC Lens expected lineup: Risser, Aguilar, Baidoo, Udol, Abdulhamid, Cuisance, Haidara, Skoras, Kadile, Hazard, Ivanovic
Como 1907 expected lineup: Butez, Couto, Ramon, Kempf, Valle, Milla, Perrone, Da Cunha, Paz, Baturina, Douvikas
Underlying data suggests a lower-scoring contest is likely
Como have overperformed their expected goals by 3.4 this season. Ten league phase goals have come from 6.6 xG. That gap tends to close rather than widen. Their defensive numbers are also genuinely strong.
Como rank sixth in the competition for expected goals conceded (2.9). Lens sit only 17th for expected goals (5.3). The hosts have scored three times in three European games. Two of those matches saw Lens fail to find the net.
However, the scorelines tell a slightly different story. All three of Como’s games have produced exactly five goals. However, Lens’ defensive approach and Como’s tight backline make Under 2.5 Goals an appealing value selection.
The market implies a 40% probability, whereas we believe the likelihood is closer to 43-45%. As a result, this is our standout value selection from our Lens vs Como predictions.
- Lens vs Como Bet 1: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.50 with 1xBet
Backing Fabregas’ men to set the tone early
Como have scored first in five of their last six games. They have also opened the scoring in all three league phase matches. By contrast, Lens offer little resistance at the start of games. They have conceded first in eight of their last ten.
Sporting and Club Brugge both took early control here. Lille also led before the hour mark at the weekend. Como have Nico Paz pulling the strings behind Anastasios Douvikas, both of whom have scored multiple goals so far in the league phase.
It is worth remembering that this is a three-way market, meaning a goalless draw would result in a losing bet. Nevertheless, we’re happy to back Como to score first at an implied probability of 54.6%, especially when it should be more than 57%.
- Lens vs Como Bet 2: Como (1st goal) at odds of 1.83 with 1xBet
Paz continues to thrive on the European stage
Nico Paz has registered two goals and three assists in three league phase games. He scored twice against Manchester United.
FotMob gives him Como’s highest rating in Serie A, with an average score of 8.11. He carries an 8.52 average rating in the UCL too. Paz sits in the 98th percentile for assists in the UCL. He’s also in the 97th percentile for xG on target (xGOT).
Paz’s shot volume is extraordinary. Notably, 40% of his goal attempts hit the target. He is also the creative spark for Fabregas, having racked up 30 line-breaking passes in just three UCL games.
With Moise Kean injured, he carries even more responsibility in the final third. Although his xG per 90 minutes suggests a scoring probability closer to 33%, we’re happy to back the in-form Argentine at a 40% implied probability here.
- Lens vs Como Bet 3: Nico Paz anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.50 with 1xBet