Bournemouth have won only two of their 12 away games this season. Meanwhile, Everton’s key creative player, Jack Grealish, will miss the rest of 25/26.
Best bets for Everton vs Bournemouth
- Match drawn at odds of 3.32 with Bet9ja
- Bournemouth (1st goal) at odds of 2.12 with Bet9ja
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction – Everton 1-1 Bournemouth
- Goalscorers prediction – Everton: Ndiaye – Bournemouth: Kroupi
Everton return to the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Tuesday night to face AFC Bournemouth. A victory would allow the hosts to move ahead of their local rivals, Liverpool, in the league standings.
The Toffees are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches, winning two and drawing three. This run has eliminated any relegation concerns for David Moyes’ team, allowing them to focus on finishing the season as strongly as possible.
However, they’ve only won a third of their home games in their new stadium, recording four draws and four defeats. Regarding player availability, Moyes’ squad is nearly at full strength. The main absentee is loan winger Jack Grealish, who is set to miss the rest of the season due to ankle surgery. It’s a big setback considering Grealish has contributed eight goals and assists in 17 appearances.
Andoni Iraola’s Bournemouth started the season with exceptional form before experiencing a decline during the autumn, which removed them from the race for European qualification. The Cherries have since recovered and are on a five-game unbeaten streak.
Bournemouth’s home form has been the reason for their current top-half position. They average just 0.92 points and conceded a staggering 30 goals in just 12 away matches. Despite these defensive struggles, they are difficult to defeat away from home, having drawn 42% of those fixtures.
Probable lineups for Everton vs Bournemouth
Everton expected lineup: Pickford, Mykolenko, O’Brien, Tarkowski, Keane, Gueye, Garner, Armstrong, Dewsbury-Hall, Ndiaye, Barry
AFC Bournemouth expected lineup: Petrovic, Truffert, Jimenez, Senesi, Hill, Cook, Scott, Rayan, Adli, Kroupi, Evanilson
Backing a draw that suits both sides
Statistically, 37.50% of Everton’s home matches and Bournemouth’s away games have resulted in draws. Despite this, the betting markets suggest there’s only a 29.41% chance of a draw on Tuesday night. Therefore, this is the value play from our trio of Everton vs Bournemouth predictions.
Although Bournemouth are prolific on home soil, they’ve found scoring more difficult on the road. They’ve netted just 17 goals in 12 away games. Similarly, Everton have scored just 15 goals in 12 home games, while conceding only 16.
Both teams have scored in six of Everton’s last seven EPL games. Meanwhile, that trend is even stronger for Bournemouth, with nine of their last ten EPL matches resulting in both teams scoring.
Although both teams are likely to score, Everton are expected to prevent the match from becoming the high-tempo, end-to-end contest that Bournemouth prefer. An entertaining draw appears to be the most likely result.
- Everton vs Bournemouth Bet 1: Match drawn at odds of 3.32 with Bet9ja
Cherries’ potential for an early lead
Everton have conceded the opening goal in four of their last four EPL games. Given that the Toffees have struggled to control games in their new stadium, there is a strong possibility that this trend will continue.
Bournemouth have scored first in their last three away games. This includes opening goals in challenging away trips to Chelsea and Brighton, as well as against bottom-placed Wolves. In fact, they’ve scored first in 58% of their away games this season, significantly higher than the league average of 38%. Everton have also trailed at halftime in 50% of their home games.
Iraola’s men will aim to score early to silence the Hill Dickinson crowd. The likes of Kroupi, Adli, and Evanilson have the pace and agility to test a relatively slow Everton defence.
- Everton vs Bournemouth Bet 2: Bournemouth (1st goal) at odds of 2.12 with Bet9ja
Everton’s defensive discipline
Although Bournemouth have scored in 92% of their away games this season, Everton have kept clean sheets in 33% of their home matches. Following the loss of Jack Grealish, Moyes is already working hard to develop new offensive strategies.
One team has scored three goals in three of their last four match-ups at Everton. However, Everton’s current defence may be more difficult for Bournemouth to break through. Moyes’ tall and aerially dominant backline has proven effective against other creative teams this season.
Everton restricted Albion—a team with an attacking style similar to Bournemouth’s—to just 1.44 xG. They also kept a clean sheet at Aston Villa last month, preventing Unai Emery’s in-form side from creating any big chances. Backing Under 2.5 goals at a probability of just 52.63% seems like another smart play.
- Everton vs Bournemouth Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95 with Bet9ja