Our betting expert expects a high-scoring game in Belgium, with the visitors scoring first and going on to win.
Best bets for Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
- Atletico Madrid to score first at odds of 1.68 on Bet9ja
- Atletico Madrid to win at odds of 1.94 onBet9ja
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.45 on Bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Club Brugge 2-3 Atletico Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Club Brugge: Hans Vanaken, Nicolo Tresoldi - Atletico Madrid: Ademola Lookman, Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez
Club Brugge beat Marseille 3-0 at home on the final matchday in the league phase. That was enough for a 19th-place finish and set up this play-off against Atletico Madrid. Diego Simeone’s team failed to secure a top eight spot after surprisingly losing 2-1 at home to Bodo/Glimt.
Since then, the Belgians have lost to Union Saint-Gilloise, but beaten Standard Liege in their domestic league. Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid’s La Liga title ambitions are over, as they’ve suffered a 1-0 defeat to Real Betis. They bounced back with a stunning 4-0 Copa del Rey win over Barcelona on Thursday.
Probable lineups for Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid
Club Brugge expected lineup: Mignolet, Seys, Mechele, Ordonez, Sabbe, Onyedika, Stankovic, Tzolis, Vanaken, Forbs, Tresoldi
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Molina, Lookman, Koke, Llorente, Simeone, Sorloth, Alvarez
Atleti to strike first in Belgium
There were four goals in the opening 45 minutes for Atletico Madrid against a shell-shocked Barca in the Spanish cup. New signing Ademola Lookman had a huge impact on the game, scoring and assisting. Julian Alvarez also put in his best performance for several months.
That result was a timely confidence boost for a team and a coach who were starting to come under criticism. It bodes well for their chances of making a fast opening as they return to European action.
Atleti have consistently registered early goals this season. They’ve scored first in 87% of their matches in La Liga. Their first-half goal difference of +4 in the Champions League shows that trend has carried over onto the European stage.
Therefore, backing the visitors to score first in this match is at good value with an implied probability of 60%.
- Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Atletico Madrid to score first at odds of 1.68 on Bet9ja
Visitors to seal first-leg advantage
Club Brugge haven’t made it past the round of 16 in this competition since they reached the final in 1978. In the Champions League era, they’ve tended to come unstuck against the stronger teams beyond the initial stage.
Even in the league phase this term, there was evidence to suggest that will be the case again. They beat Monaco, Kairat and Marseille comfortably, but also suffered heavy defeats against Bayern, Sporting and Arsenal.
They ranked outside the top 24 for xPTS (expected points) with only 9.1. They also allowed 17.2 xG, the seventh-worst record in the competition.
Those are indicators of a side that is going to struggle against a team of Atletico Madrid’s quality. Simeone’s players can take confidence from a 3-2 win at PSV in December. This will be a similar kind of test, and they are likely to secure a first-leg advantage.
- Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Atletico Madrid to win at odds of 1.94 on Bet9ja
Another cracker in store at the Jan Breydel Stadium
Atletico Madrid are still somewhat dismissively labelled a defensive team. However, the recent Champions League stats don’t really support that.
Los Rojiblancos were the joint-third highest scorers in last season’s league phase with 20 goals. They averaged more than two goals per game this term again. Both teams scored in seven of their eight fixtures.
There are also usually goals whenever Club Brugge play in this competition. Including the qualifiers, 10 of their 12 matches this term have seen at least one team netted three or more times. All of their games in the league phase produced at least three goals in total.
The Jan Breydel Stadium was the setting for a thrilling 3-3 draw when Brugge last faced Spanish opposition. That was against Barcelona in November. Backing over 3.5 goals looks like it could be a profitable strategy again.
- Club Brugge vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.45 on Bet9ja