Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
- Match to be drawn with odds of @3.51 on 1xBet, equating to a 30.3% implied probability.
- Both teams to score with odds of @1.82 on 1xBet, equating to a 54.6% implied probability.
- Alexander Sorloth to score anytime with odds of @3.00 on 1xBet
We predict a 1-1 draw between Athletic Bilbao and Atletico Madrid on Saturday.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Athletic Bilbao welcome Atletico Madrid to San Mamés Stadium on Saturday. This is the fifth meeting between the two teams since the start of December last year.
Athletic Club have fought off transfer advances for Euro 2024 star Nico Williams all summer. Williams appears to be set to stay at the club as Athletic aim to qualify for the Champions League.
Four points from three matches is a disappointing early return, however. A home draw with Getafe was followed by defeat to Barcelona. Ernesto Valverde hopes the 1-0 midweek win over Valencia kickstarted The Lions’ campaign.
Atleti have five points on the board. An emphatic win over Girona gave an insight into what this team could be in 2024-25. Draws with Villarreal and Espanyol were frustrating – Diego Simeone’s team had 25 shots in midweek and failed to score.
Headline summer signing Julian Alvarez was taken off at half-time in midweek. Atleti are clearly looking to manage his workload carefully, and it will be interesting to see if Simeone gives him a longer run-out at the weekend. Conor Gallagher could also be in line for his first start if Simeone rotates.
Probable Lineups for Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
Athletic Bilbao probable XI:
Agirrezabala; De Marcos, Vivian, Alvarez, Boiro; Prados, Jauregizar; Williams, Sancet, Williams; Guruzeta.
Atletico Madrid probable XI:
Oblak; Molina, Le Normand, Witsel, Azpilicueta, Riquelme; De Paul, Koke, Barrios; Sorloth, Alvarez.
Spoils Shared at San Mamés
These teams have not drawn since 2021, and they have not drawn at San Mamés Stadium since 2020. Still, we are comfortable sitting on the fence for this match, given the handsome returns associated with the 3.30 price.
Just eight points split the two teams last season. Atletico were third in expected goal difference, while Athletic Club were fifth. There wasn’t a huge amount between the two teams by their underlying metrics, and neither side has shone in the first couple of weeks of the season.
The early returns from Athletic Club are a bit underwhelming with only four points on the board, which puts us off taking them to win the match. Atletico have only got one win in their last seven matches at San Mamés.
- Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: Draw @ 3.51 with 1xBet
BTTS Lands
Both teams scoring has not been a profitable wager when these two teams have played over the last few seasons. Atletico’s early-season form gives us confidence they can find the net on the road, however, and Athletic Club scored in each of the four matches between these sides in 2023-24.
The hosts have scored in all three of their matches this season. Atletico were shut out by Espanyol in the week, but that was not due to a lack of chance creation, as they amassed 25 shots and hit the woodwork.
These teams are going to find some attacking rhythm in the coming weeks. Given Athletic Bilbao’s record against Atleti last season, we expect the home team to score at least once. The visitors have shown their attack can generate opportunities, too.
- Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Both teams to score @ 1.82 with 1xBet
Backing Sorloth For the Second of the Season
We are sticking with Alexander Sorloth, despite the Norwegian failing to score in the last two matches. Sorloth had four shots in Atletico’s midweek draw with Espanyol. He was the second-highest scorer in La Liga last term and has already found the net once for Atleti this season.
Where Diego Simeone was cautious with Julian Alvarez’s minutes in the week, Sorloth was given the full 90. Perhaps that’s a sign Sorloth will be rested at the weekend, but we interpret this as Simeone being more confident in Sorloth’s match fitness after making 34 starts in the league in 2023-24.
Amid all of Atletico’s attacking options, none of them offer the same skillset as Sorloth. He is going to be integral to Atletico this season – we like the value on the former Villarreal man to find the net here after posing a constant threat against Espanyol.
- Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Alexander Sorloth to score anytime @3.00 with 1xBet