High probability bets - This week's predictions selection - 28/10/2024
By focusing on matches with a likelihood of winning of over 85%, you’ll be able to reduce your risk-taking. However, you should always keep in mind that the win is not guaranteed, and you should play responsibly.
| Matchs | Results | Chance of winning | Odds |
| Inter Milan vs Venezia | Inter to win | 85% | 1,18 |
| Bayern Munich vs Union Berlin | Bayern to win | 85% | 1,17 |
| Barcelona vs Espanyol | Barcelona to win | 86% | 1,14 |
| Sporting Lisbon vs Estrela Amadora | Sporting to win | 94% | 1,07 |
Odds on courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Does a 100% Sure Soccer Prediction Exist?
In sports betting, the concept of a "sure bet" or "sure win" – a 100% guaranteed outcome – is a myth. While some bets may seem highly probable due to favorable odds and statistical analysis, an element of unpredictability always remains in sports, making a true "sure bet" impossible. Unexpected factors like last-minute injuries, upsets, and changing weather conditions can all impact results, even when the odds favor a particular outcome. So while a "sure win" may sound appealing, it simply cannot exist in the dynamic world of sports betting.
Approaching Betting Responsibly
Every wager, even those that seem like a "sure bet," involves risk. To navigate sports betting successfully, bettors should focus on thorough research, responsible bankroll management, and setting realistic expectations. Though the term "sure bet" might suggest a guaranteed outcome, it’s vital to remember that sports betting carries inherent risks. By betting only what they can afford to lose, bettors can maintain control and enjoy the excitement without undue financial strain.
Types of Bets for Safer Betting
In sports betting, the classic 1X2 bet (predicting win, draw, or loss) is just one option among many, by exploring these alternative bets, it’s possible to find other options that may approach success rates of around 85%. Here are some popular betting type options:
- Double Chance: This bet covers two of the three possible outcomes (win or draw for one team), which increases the chance of a favorable result, though with lower odds due to covering multiple outcomes.
- Draw No Bet (DNB): This option involves betting on a team’s win with a refund if the match ends in a draw, reducing the risk of losing your stake in a tie and providing higher chances of a positive result.
- Asian Handicap (+0.5): With a +0.5 handicap, you win if your chosen team wins or draws. This covers two favorable results, minimizing risk and increasing the likelihood of a win.
- Over 0.5 Goals: A bet on "over 0.5 goals" wins as soon as there’s at least one goal scored in the match. This bet has a high probability of success since only one goal is needed, but it offers lower odds.
- Both Teams to Score (BTTS) - No: Betting that both teams won’t score can work well in matches where one team has a strong defence or limited attacking power. This option can be useful in low-scoring games and can increase the likelihood of a positive result.
These types of bets aim to offer safer alternatives by managing risk, though they aren’t without it. Responsible gambling, careful analysis, and bankroll management are still essential for any betting strategy.
Calculating Probability in Betting
Probabilities in betting are calculated based on both the odds set by bookmakers and the statistical analysis of past performances. Historical data, such as head-to-head records, current forms, and injury reports, can provide insights into a team or player’s chances of winning. By combining odds with statistical analysis, bettors can make more informed decisions and better assess the risk and potential reward of each bet, though a "sure bet" remains elusive.
Responsible Gambling
Responsible Gambling principles advocate for safe betting practices by encouraging bettors to manage their time and budgets wisely. Avoiding impulsive decisions and betting within a set limit can help prevent financial strain. By following these responsible gambling habits, bettors can enjoy sports betting’s thrill in a balanced, sustainable way, recognizing that "sure wins" don’t exist but that calculated, informed betting enhances enjoyment and control.
Safe Betting Tips FAQ
Why is it impossible to find a "sure bet" in sports betting?
A "sure bet" or "sure win" implies a 100% guaranteed outcome, which is impossible due to the unpredictable nature of sports. Factors such as injuries, weather conditions, and unexpected game changes all affect outcomes, making it unrealistic to promise a guaranteed win on any bet.
Are there specific strategies that increase my chances without guaranteeing a sure win?
Yes, some strategies can help manage risk, such as choosing bet types like double chance, draw no bet, or over/under bets. These options provide more flexibility and can lower the likelihood of a loss. However, while these strategies may help increase your chances of a favorable result, they don’t ensure a "sure win."
How does arbitrage betting relate to the concept of a sure win?
Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of a match across different bookmakers to lock in a small profit. While it theoretically provides a "sure win," in practice, it’s challenging due to limited opportunities, account restrictions, and the high upfront investment required. Arbitrage betting can minimize risk but doesn’t eliminate it, as odds can change quickly.
What are the best practices for responsible betting?
Responsible betting involves setting a budget, conducting thorough research, and sticking to manageable bets. Managing your bankroll, avoiding impulsive bets, and not chasing losses are crucial practices. Responsible gambling habits help you enjoy betting without undue stress and financial risks, recognizing that there’s no such thing as a "sure win."