Benfica vs Barcelona Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Benfica vs Barcelona
- Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.80 with BetWinner
- Over 1.5 First-Half Goals at odds of 2.05 with BetWinner
- Barcelona to Score in Both Halves at odds of 2.17 with BetWinner
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Benfica and Barcelona are set to play their 11th competitive fixture in European competition in their UCL last 16 first leg. Barca finished second in the league phase, while Benfica only narrowly defeated AS Monaco 4-3 on aggregate in their last 16 play-off.
Benfica have been in imperious form on home soil in their domestic campaign. The Reds have won 11 of their 12 home games, scoring 3.08 goals per game on average. Consequently, Benfica are second only to Sporting on goal difference in Liga Portugal.
Benfica also have the best defensive record in Liga Portugal, having conceded just 18 goals in 24 games. It’s a slightly different picture in the UCL, where they have conceded 15 goals in 10 games so far this campaign. All of this demonstrates the gulf in quality between Liga Portugal and the UCL.
Barcelona find themselves in a similar position domestically, sitting at the top of La Liga after their last six league games. Hansi Flick’s side have also kept clean sheets in their last three games. Barca’s away form is only marginally weaker than their home form, averaging 2.14 points per game away from the Nou Camp.
Barca were in formidable form during the league phase, scoring 28 goals in eight games, at an average of more than three per game. When you factor in their fine recent league form, the Catalan giants appear to be a very difficult proposition for Benfica right now.
Probable Lineups for Benfica vs Barcelona
Benfica Expected Lineup: Trubin; Araujo, Carreras, Silva, Otamendi, Aursnes, Kokcu, Barreiro, Akturkoglu, Schjelderup, Pavlidis
Barcelona Expected Lineup: Szczesny; Balde, Kounde, Garcia, Araujo, de Jong, Pedri, Yamal, Gavi, Raphinha, Lewandowski
Barca to Edge Out Benfica
With six wins and only one defeat in the league phase, Barcelona were one of the most impressive teams to watch in the opening stage of this season’s UCL.
Interestingly, Barca were drawn to play Benfica in their penultimate game of the league phase. In what many have described as the game of the league phase, Barca ended up 5-4 winners against a Benfica side that finished the contest with ten men.
Barcelona enjoyed 75% possession in this fixture, and we expect Hansi Flick’s men to dominate the ball again in the first leg of their last 16 tie. Benfica will aim to counter quickly and exploit any defensive lapses, but Barca have the upper hand here based on their recent UCL form. Nevertheless, the nine-goal thriller in January means we expect Benfica to score despite losing.
- Benfica vs Barcelona Bet 1: Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score (Yes) at odds of 2.80 with BetWinner
Both Teams Expected to Start Strong
Match 7 of this season’s UCL league phase serves as the perfect reference for our Benfica vs Barcelona predictions. In their earlier meeting this season, Benfica scored three of the four goals in the first half.
This means the Reds aren’t a team content with sitting back for the entire 90 minutes. In 92% of Benfica’s home games this season, at least one goal has been scored, but 58% have also featured two or more.
It’s a similar story for Barcelona, as they have seen one goal scored in 86% of their away games this term. Meanwhile, 57% of their away games have had two or more goals scored. This suggests that a 50% probability of two or more first-half goals being scored on Wednesday night seems too low.
- Benfica vs Barcelona Bet 2: Over 1.5 First Half Goals at odds of 2.05 with BetWinner
Flick’s Men Capable of Scoring in Each Half
With 28 goals scored in eight UCL games and 71 goals scored in 26 La Liga games, Barcelona have been one of this season’s entertainers.
Barca had 11 shots on target in their 5-4 win at Benfica in January. They also scored in both halves, with four coming in the second period.
Barca have scored in both halves in 50% of their domestic games this season. This suggests that Hansi Flick’s side rarely take a cautious approach during matches.
- Benfica vs Barcelona Bet 3: Barcelona to Score in Both Halves at odds of 2.17 with BetWinner