Why a January Premier League move could derail Ricardo Pepi’s USMNT World Cup path

It is first worth admitting that Pepi is a very good No. 9 who deserves to be playing at a higher level than the Eredivisie. That is not necessarily a criticism of the excellent PSV or their seasoned coach, Peter Bosz. The USMNT forward has simply done his job at a high enough level to suggest that he deserves to play on a bigger stage. Much like, say, Luis Suarez in 2011, Pepi has outgrown the place he plays.  

The stats prove it. The advanced numbers suggest there are very few more effective strikers in Europe - never mind the Dutch league. Pepi, mostly in a backup or rotation role, has averaged more than a goal per 90 minutes since 2023. Last season, before that knee injury derailed his campaign, Pepi had scored 11 and assisted two in 693 minutes of league play, giving him a quite remarkable 1.69 goal contributions per 90 minutes. These were the numbers of a bona fide top-tier striker - not necessarily a sparkplug off the bench. 

This campaign, his numbers have admittedly dropped slightly - although he is still averaging over a goal per 90 minutes. But look at the Champions League, and his numbers this year eclipse them all, with an average of 1.78 goal contributions per 90 minutes. On the biggest stages, Pepi is delivering his best soccer. 

There is, of course, more to this than just numbers. There are tactical fits, vibes, and the comforts of playing in a club that values your talents. But if raw data is what matters - and in modern soccer it so often is the key factor - then Pepi should be playing on a bigger stage. 

Yet the time for that isn't now. Part of the reason Pepi has been so effective is that he has performed when healthy and settled. Goal-scoring is so often about environment and the way a manager puts trust in a player. Bosz knows that his PSV will get goals out of Pepi in a central role, and that, especially against more physical opposition, the No. 9 is able to be a top-tier poacher and finisher inside the box. This system fits him perfectly, and even when coming off the bench, not fully sharp, Pepi has proved his worth. That alone could be enough to stick around until at least the end of the season. 

And then there's the injury. It is, objectively, uncommon for players to move when they are recovering from a major procedure. Sometimes clubs discover during a medical that a new signing might have a knock or a niggle that might need careful managing. Sometimes players are signed too late in preseason to be worked into the starting XI immediately. In the worst of cases, such as Tyler Adams' proposed move to Chelsea, medical examinations can see transfers collapse altogether. Signing an injured player, who it is known to be out for two months of action, in the middle of a season, is remarkably uncommon. 

Moving clubs is hard enough for any number of reasons, but it tends to be the football that keeps a new signing going. New countries, new houses, and new surroundings are difficult to adjust to. But having a job, a familiar routine, a ball to kick? That fixes a lot of this stuff. What happens, then, when that baseline is removed, and you're left to watch from the sidelines while nursing a long-term knock?

And the Premier League couldn't be a more difficult league to adjust to. Comparing leagues is a bit of a fools errand these days; there is no singular, undisputed "best league in the world." The reigning European Champions play in France. Barcelona and Real Madrid are easily among the top five or seven clubs in the world and that's with Los Blancos in a down year. The English top flight might be the most competitive, week in, week out - but many of the best players in the world are practicing their craft elsewhere. 

Still, this is a historically difficult year to be a striker in the Premier League. English clubs spent a record $2.1 billion on footballers categorized as "forwards" in last year's summer transfer market. Names such as Alexander Isak, Victor Gyokeres, Benjamin Sesko, and Hugo Ekitike made high-profile moves to clubs with lofty aspirations. It seemed a good summer to sign a striker. Yet those players have arrived in the league at a surprisingly fallow time. The number of goals scored by forwards is at its lowest mark in a decade, 1.36 per game, down from 1.58 last season and 1.69 before that. Of course, there can be a multitude of reasons why that is the case. Set-piece goals are on the rise, creating more chances for defenders in dead-ball situations. Strikers are also getting fewer touches in the opposition box, so often marked out of the game by more resilient and compact backlines. This is any coach's good response. Everyone is signing forwards? Create systems to stop them. Mikel Arteta, whose Arsenal spent big on Gyokeres this summer, expecting a 40-goal-per-season striker, admitted that it has been a difficult year for his main man to get going.

"I think it goes for all the No 9s in the league and how difficult it is to play that position nowadays with the physicality, the dominance of the centre-backs and the quality of them, and the lack of spaces as well during the match for them to exploit," he said.

Gyokeres has two open play goals in the Premier League. 

Why, then, would Pepi want to walk into this? If his whole thing is being an effective poacher, a guy who finds space in the box, why would he pick the league where those spaces come at an absolute premium?

It becomes even more confusing when you consider Fulham are the supposed new home. To be sure, there's a fine history of USMNT players succeeding there, from Brian McBride to Clint Dempsey. "Fulhamerica" is a fun concept. But the Cottagers don't necessarily need goals through the middle right now. That may well be a priority at the end of the season, especially with concerns over the long-term durability of excellent Mexican striker Raul Jimenez, who turns 35 this year. But for now, Fulham are roughly where they aspire to be every season, flirting with a European slot and middle of the pack when it comes to both attacking and defending. Their goal differential is an entirely agreeable "0".

Now, football clubs should absolutely be ambitious. In a perfect world, Fulham's ownership would use this window as a chance to push for a European place. They are a good watch this year, and have won the same number of games as the reigning title holders, Liverpool. Fulham fans, no doubt, will want their owner to spend in order to make their European dreams come true.

Why, then, would they do that for, at best, three months of a fully fit forward? There are rumors that they are in for Oscar Bobb, Manchester City's young, mercurial winger. That, as a signing, would make far more sense. Bobb has had some injury problems, but he is currently relatively healthy and can offer goals and assists in wide areas. He isn't necessarily a level raiser immediately - and he doesn't solve the long-term Jimenez issue - but he will certainly chip in where others might not be able to. 

And then, of course, there is a World Cup to consider. It is a rather narrow-minded fan's perspective to assume that every player, at every juncture, in every possible waking second, thinks only of their national team. But is an undisputed fact that footballers want to play at World Cups. USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino, so far, has made it clear that he will pick players who are in form and healthy. It is, no doubt, part of the reason why he has called upon MLS talent over their European counterparts, at times. 

Now, even a half-fit Pepi is worth taking to a World Cup. If Folarin Balogun is the clear starter, then Pepi leads a solid pack of second-choice options. Assuming Pochettino brings three forwards to the tournament on home soil, Pepi should absolutely be in that mix. There is very little argument there. Yet it generally helps to have players in good form when they take the field for the biggest games of their lives. It would seem difficult for Pepi to achieve that if he is to move midway through a season. It would, in fact, require an almost unprecedented level of impact at a mid-table club, especially with fewer than 10 Premier League matches likely remaining by the time he reaches full fitness.

This would be a significant risk.

Pepi wasn’t scoring goals in 2022. An impressive MLS run and a fast start with the USMNT earned the Texan a big-money move to Augsburg, then a mid-table Bundesliga side, but the step up proved premature. Still a teenager, Pepi went 15 games without a goal, and former USMNT boss Gregg Berhalter responded as most managers would, leaving him out of the squad. In effect, Pepi had made the wrong move at the wrong time.

This time around, he isn't in immediate danger of missing the squad. Indeed, the circumstances are different. He is a more seasoned player with a good goalscoring record. Yet, if Pepi stays at PSV, he can rehab, and with a familiar routine, find form, and continue to bang in the goals without the pressure of a big price-tag. Then, that would help him come into camp fresh and ready to perform.

But there is also the allure of cash. A Premier League move would, no doubt, offer a pay raise for the USMNT striker. Pepi reportedly makes $2.5 million, while Jimenez currently earns $7.1 million. Money could talk.

"I would say one of my biggest regrets was not being patient and not being able to own the decision" Altidore told GOAL in 2024. "It's a hard thing to do as a 22, 23-year-old, but at the time when I was at Alkmaar, I had some of the biggest clubs [in world football] that you could want to go to. But the financial differences were massive in terms of what the Premier League clubs could offer."

He added, "If I could do it over again, my gut was telling me to go to one of those bigger clubs in smaller countries. Italy, Spain, Portugal, one of those countries. Go to one of those teams and you'll go to a bigger club and from there, you'll go to the biggest clubs like the Premier League."

A fit Pepi, no doubt, will be invaluable for the U.S. at a World Cup. And sure, after that, he might get the big money move he deserves. There will likely be a time when Pepi is wearing a Fulham kit, or playing in the Premier League. By no fault of his own, that time simply shouldn't be now.