Our betting expert expects Kylian Mbappe to score first again, but sees Valencia coming back to earn a point.
Best bets for Valencia vs Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 2.90 on BetWinner
- Second half - Valencia to score over 0.5 goals at odds of 2.10 on BetWinner
- Double chance - Valencia or Draw at odds of 2.50 on BetWinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Valencia 1-1 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Valencia: Hugo Duro - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe
As many as 12 clubs are involved in the relegation scrap in La Liga this season. Valencia are certainly one of those sides, but a return of seven points from four matches has boosted their chances.
However, they still head into this game on the back of successive defeats. Los Che were beaten 2-1 by Athletic Club in the Copa del Rey on Wednesday. Real Madrid have already been eliminated from that competition, so they’ve had a rare free midweek.
Despite already suffering three defeats in cup competitions in 2026, the visitors are in good league form. They’ve won their last six matches in the Spanish top flight.
Probable lineups for Valencia vs Real Madrid
Valencia expected lineup: Dimitrievski, Gaya, Copete, Tarrega, Foulquier, Ugrinic, Pepelu, Danjuma, Beltran, Rioja, Duro
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Camavinga, Huijsen, Asencio, Valverde, Tchouameni, Guler, Ceballos, Rodrygo, Mbappe, Mastantuono
Mbappe to open the scoring again
Vinicius Junior is suspended for this match, while Jude Bellingham is out injured. That only adds to the sense that Mbappe will be the main goal threat for the visitors.
The Frenchman has been the only reliable goalscorer for Los Blancos this term, having already scored 37 times across all competitions. Mbappe is on course to hit 50 club goals in a single season for the first time.
In La Liga, the 27-year-old accounts for a huge 47% of his team’s goal total. The change in coach has not altered that situation in the slightest. He has scored eight goals in five games under Alvaro Arbeloa.
Having also netted first in four of those games, Mbappe is the outstanding candidate to open the scoring. He’s surely worth backing to do that, even with a high implied probability of 34.5%.
- Valencia vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 2.92 on BetWinner
Valencia to grow into the game
While Valencia’s fans have been dissatisfied with their team at times this season, they always back them when Real Madrid visit. That should help the home players as they bid to upset the title hopefuls.
Carlos Corberan’s attack has performed much better in the second half of matches this season. They’ve only registered five first-half goals in La Liga, compared to 18 after the break. Meanwhile, 80% of the goals they’ve scored at Mestalla have come in the second half.
Hugo Duro is on a particularly prolific run in Valencia home fixtures. The striker has scored in each of his last four home league matches. That includes a 79th-minute winning goal against Levante, and a 92nd-minute equaliser against Sevilla.
Real Madrid’s defence has also been much more vulnerable after the break. They’ve conceded 72% of their league goals in the second half. Therefore, backing the hosts to get on the scoresheet after the interval seems to offer value.
- Valencia vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Second half - Valencia to score over 0.5 goals at odds of 2.15 on BetWinner
Los Che to dent Real Madrid’s title challenge
While Real Madrid have recorded positive results in the league recently, their form has still left plenty to be desired. They needed a 100th-minute penalty from Mbappe to seal an unconvincing 2-1 home win over Rayo Vallecano.
After a really poor display in Lisbon, that was not the result Arbeloa expected. A 4-2 defeat to Benfica in their final Champions League encounter highlighted many defensive flaws. Their opponents created 3.01 xG and eight big chances in that match.
Having also been beaten by second-tier Albacete since the change of coach, Real Madrid have a lot of improving to do. They could struggle at Mestalla, particularly given the players they are missing.
Valencia have lost only twice at home in the league this season. They’ve gone six without defeat at Mestalla in the Spanish top flight since losing to Villarreal in October. Backing Los Che to get at least a point here seems good with an implied probability of 40%.
- Valencia vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Double chance - Valencia or Draw at odds of 2.53 on BetWinner