Portugal vs Scotland Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Portugal vs Scotland
- Portugal -1 handicap with odds of @1.87 on 1xBet, equating to a 53.8% chance of the home side winning by at least two goals.
- Diogo Jota to score
- Under 0.5 goals for Scotland with odds of @1.70 on 1xBet, representing a 59.9% chance of Portugal keeping a clean sheet.
Portugal should expect to beat Scotland 3-0.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Portugal host Scotland on Sunday night in the second round of fixtures in the Nations League.
The Portuguese would have been a little disappointed with how they performed at Euro 2024. Roberto Martinez’s side strutted their best stuff in their first two matches of the tournament. They did reach the quarter-finals before being eliminated by France but Portugal are eyeing silverware in this Nations League campaign.
Roberto Martinez has done a great job since becoming Portugal's boss. The team were on a remarkable winning run in competitive matches befire their 2-0 loss against Georgia in the final group game of the European Championships.
Scotland went into the Euros full of hope having played well in qualifying. Steve Clarke’s team beat Spain, the eventual winners of the tournament, as recently as 2023 but they failed to deliver on the big stage. The team will be hoping to rediscover their best form as they gear up to qualify for the next World Cup.
The Scots now find themselves in League A of the Nations League having earned promotion to the top tier by topping a group that included Ukraine and Ireland in the last edition of this tournament.
Probable Lineups for Portugal vs Scotland
The probable lineup for Portugal in the "system of play."
Costa; Semedo, Dias, Inacio, Mendes; Vitinha, Palhinha, Fernandes; Silva, Jota, Ronaldo
The probable lineup for Scotland in the "system of play."
Gunna; Hendry, Hanley, McKenna; Ralston, Gilmour, McGregor, Robertson; McGinn, McTominay, Adams
Portugal Put Scotland to the Sword
Portugal have an abundance of attacking talent in their ranks and should be able to carve open the Scottish defence here. Therefore, we are backing the home side to win by at least two goals.
Since Roberto Martinez took over following the World Cup, Portugal have scored an average of 2.7 goals per game. They scored the second most goals in European Championship qualifying with an average of 3.6 per game, 3.4 more than their opponents.
Scotland last played Portugal back in 2018. They had home advantage that time around but still wound up losing 3-1.
Portugal vs Scotland Bet 1: Portugal -1 handicap @1.87 with 1xBet
Jota Can Seize the Opportunity
Cristiano Ronaldo remains a central figure in the Portugal squad but the legendary forward is not the player he once was. He failed to find the net in the Europea Championships despite having plenty of attempts. These fixtures could be the chance for another attacker to stake their claim for the striker role so we are backing Diogo Jota to score here.
Jota also faces competition for places at club level but he tends to have an impact when on the pitch. In the last year, the attacker has a non-penalty xG of 0.52 per 90 minutes played. His average of 0.82 goals per 90 minutes puts him in the top 2% of forwards across Europe’s top five leagues.
Portugal vs Scotland Bet 2: Diogo Jota Anytime Scorer
Scotland’s Lack of Cutting Edge
The last of our Portugal vs Scotland predictions is for the favourites to keep a clean sheet.
Creativity was a real problem for Steve Clarke’s side in the summer. Their average xG of 0.32 per game was the lowest at the tournament by some distance. Serbia had the second-lowest xG but it was 1.44 higher than Scotland’s over the three matches.
Roberto Martinez likes his Portugal team to keep possession and starve their opponents of opportunities. This patient approach meant they had the third lowest xGA at Euro 2024.
Portugal vs Scotland Bet 3: Under 0.5 Goals For Scotland @1.70 with 1xBet