After three matchdays in the league phase, only three sides still have perfect records, including unfancied Midtjylland and Braga.
| Europa League - Top 8 Finish market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Braga to beat Genk | 1.75 |
| FC Midtjylland to beat Celtic | 2.17 |
| Dinamo Zagreb to beat Celta Vigo | 2.81 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
A season of upsets in the Europa League
This Europa League season has been full of surprises. Even tournament favourites like Aston Villa suffered a major upset on Matchday 3, losing 2-1 away to an impressive Go Ahead Eagles team.
Italian powerhouses Roma have suffered back-to-back home defeats in the competition against Lille and Viktoria Plzen. Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest have secured only four points and were surprisingly defeated at home by Midtjylland earlier this month.
Such results suggest this could be a wide-open competition. Many major clubs are choosing to rotate during the league phase, so the top eight spots may continue to feature some unexpected sides.
Currently, the top eight includes only Lyon and unfancied Freiburg from Europe’s big five leagues. The other top-eight teams are Midtjylland, Braga, Viktoria Plzen, Dinamo Zagreb, Ferencvaros, and Brann. Meanwhile, Go Ahead Eagles and Young Boys are close behind, as both have six points from their opening three fixtures.
The current situation represents a big change from last season. The top six places in the 2024/25 league phase all went to clubs from the major European leagues. Man Utd and Tottenham qualified despite their poor Premier League form, while Lazio and Athletic Club clinched the top two positions.
Which surprise packages will finish in the top eight?
Since this new format is only in its second season, it is still uncertain how many points will be needed to reach the top eight. Last term, Rangers barely made it with 14 points, while Bodo/Glimt, Anderlecht, and FCSB entered the knockout phase play-offs with the same tally.
With nine points already secured, Braga and Midtjylland appear to have a clear path to 15. Both will be just one win away if they win their favourable home fixtures on Matchday 4.
Braga’s defence seems strong enough to see them progress and potentially go far in this competition. They’re one of just two teams who are yet to concede in the league phase. The Portuguese side have only allowed 1.3 xG so far, which is also the best record.
Midtjylland’s underlying data is less impressive, but they’ve won seven in a row in the Europa League, including the qualifying rounds. Remaining home fixtures against struggling Celtic, Genk, and Dinamo Zagreb suggest they’ll secure at least two more victories. Backing the Danes to finish in the top eight offers real value with an implied probability of just 44.4%.
Dinamo Zagreb could also be a contender when the clubs meet on the final matchday. The Croatians have already collected seven points, with their xGA tally of 1.4, the second-best record behind Braga.
Having already upset a strong Fenerbahce side, they’ll fancy their chances with three of their final five games at home. With a low implied probability of 18.2%, Dinamo could also be worth backing to secure a top-eight finish.