England vs Slovakia Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for England vs. Slovakia
- England/England half-time/full-time with odds of @ 3.35 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 47.6%/51.3%.
- Under 2.5 goals with odds of @ 1.72 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 58.8%.
- Harry Kane to score anytime with odds of @ 1.72 on 22bet, meaning an implied probability of 48.8%.
England are expected to beat Slovakia by a score of 2-0.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
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England and Slovakia meet in Gelsenkirchen in the round of 16 of Euro 2024 on Sunday evening. Despite an underwhelming group-stage showing, England have found themselves on the weaker side of the draw.
France, Belgium, Portugal, Germany, and Spain are on the other side of the bracket. Although the Three Lions are the comfortable betting favourites over Slovakia for this matchup, they scored just two goals in the group stage. Gareth Southgate’s team drew with both Denmark and Slovenia.
Third in Group E with four points, Slovakia made it through as the third-ranked third-placed team. It was an up and down group stage from their perspective, starting with a win over Belgium before losing to Ukraine and drawing with Romania.
A win here would be the first time Slovakia have reached the last eight of a major tournament since they were part of Czechoslovakia.
England are aiming to extend their strong record at tournaments under Southgate. The England manager is under severe pressure, though, and he might be tempted to make some significant lineup changes after minimal chance creation in the group stage.
Probable Lineups for England vs. Slovakia
England probable XI:
Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier; Rice, Mainoo; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane.
Slovakia probable XI:
Dubravka; Pekarik, Vavro, Skriniar, Hancko; Kucka, Lobotka, Duda; Schranz, Strelec, Haraslin.
England Get Ahead Early On
England started well against Serbia. Their performances against Denmark and Slovenia were hardly impressive, but we expect them to push on in the knockout rounds.
Since Southgate took over, the Three Lions have made a habit of grinding through the group stages before upping their game in the knockouts. There is a very favourable path to the final with how the bracket has fallen, and we fancy England to fly out the traps on Sunday evening.
Slovakia might have stunned Belgium on matchday one, but their loss to Ukraine and draw with Romania are representative of where this team stands.
- England vs Slovakia Bet 1: England/England @ 3.35 on 22bet
Low-Scoring Game
Even if England deliver an improved performance, the game isn’t going to be a thriller. Southgate prioritises defensive solidity, and he will not be risking that in the round of 16.
England conceded just 1.42 expected goals over their three group matches, which was comfortably the best mark of the competition. Scotland were the only team to generate fewer expected goals than Slovakia.
After conceding just four goals in their eight qualifying matches, England’s formula is clear. Slovakia’s attack isn’t blessed with elite talents either. Only two players in their squad have scored more than seven international goals, and none of their forwards average better than a goal every 4.5 caps.
- England vs Slovakia Bet 2: Under 2.5 total goals @ 1.72 on 22bet
Captain Kane Delivers
Harry Kane has been on the receiving end of some high-profile criticism so far this summer. Much of it has been harsh. Kane is potentially England’s greatest ever player, and one of the best strikers in the world, so there’s no question he will start this round of 16 match.
Winner of the 2023-24 European Golden Shoe, Kane is a proven tournament performer. He won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup, scored twice in Qatar, and three times at Euro 2020.
England have a good chance of winning a penalty here, given Slovakia’s inevitable low block. Kane is going to be a threat in open play, too. Considering his sensational international record, we like the value on Kane to score anytime.
- England vs Slovakia Bet 3: Harry Kane to score anytime @ 1.72 on 22bet