Copa Libertadores final: Why it’s worth backing the favourites in Peru

Both Brazilian giants have a crucial few weeks ahead of them as they vie for domestic and continental glory.

Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

An all-Brazilian Copa Libertadores final

This weekend’s Copa Libertadores final will see Palmeiras and Flamengo face off in the final between two clubs from the same nation since the switch to a single-match format. Two went to extra time and only one - last year’s 3-1 win for Botafogo - ended with over 2.5 goals scored in 90 minutes. When analyzing recent years, the favourites generally secured the win.

As expected, these games tend to be highly intense. At least one red card has been issued in all of the last three Copa Libertadores finals, including one after two minutes last year. Furthermore, six yellow cards were handed out when they met at this stage in 2021.

If this one follows the general pattern of recent same-nation finals, then Flamengo should be backed to win. The team that came out on top in the preceding league fixtures won all but one of the last five same-nation clashes. There’s value to be had at the current price, as well.

Backing the favourites

Flamengo are favourites for a clear reason. They’re five points ahead of their opponents in the Brazilian Serie A, and have lost only one of their last eight fixtures. Filipe Luís’ men have also won both of their meetings against Verdao so far this season.

It’s worth noting that Palmeiras have struggled against Flamengo in the past, having won only one of their last eight meetings. Moreover, they have lost this fixture 10 times in 2019. Given the significance of this final, the team in black and red are expected to be up to the challenge.

Given how evenly-matched these two are, and their last fixture in October, betting on a high number of goals may not be wise. Although their last clash ended with five scored, five consecutive meetings before that one featured fewer than 2.5 goals. CL finals are often closely fought anyway; last year’s final was the first one played under the single-format version that wasn’t decided by one goal.

However, there could be value in the red card market. Ten years have passed since any CL final game, one or two-legged, ended with fewer than five yellow cards. There were eight bookings last year in addition to the straight red, and five in the all-Brazilian final before that in 2022.

Meanwhile, in terms of the most crucial players, Flamengo’s Giorgian de Arrascaeta is undoubtedly the one who stands out. He has recorded 23 goals and 17 assists, a total of 40 direct contributions, over 59 matches in 2025. For Palmeiras, Jose Manuel Lopez (30) and Vitor Roque (25) are close behind, but de Arrascaeta is the one everyone will be watching closely.

This is expected to be a fascinating outing in Lima, with both sides likely to be highly competitive. However, Luis’ men are likely to secure victory. Alviverde go into the game without a win in five matches and having failed to score in three of them. Therefore, Flamengo will fancy their chances.