Our betting expert expects a close game to end in a draw, and Kylian Mbappe to score again for the visitors.
Best bets for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid
- Draw at odds of 4.04 on 1xBet
- Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at odds of 1.77 on 1xBet
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Athletic Club 1-1 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Athletic Club: Nico Williams - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe
Neither side has been in convincing form this season. Athletic won only three times in 15 matches across all competitions ahead of their weekend trip to Levante. However, they seemed much stronger in that game, having won 2-0 with key man Nico Williams performing well.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid were held to a third straight draw in La Liga by Girona on Sunday. As a result of this run, they have lost the top position in the league, with Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Villarreal all closing the gap. his situation increases the pressure on Xabi Alonso’s side ahead of what’s always a tough away fixture.
Probable lineups for Athletic Club vs Real Madrid
Athletic Club expected lineup: Simon, Yuri, Laporte, Vivian, Areso, Jauregizar, Ruiz de Galarreta, N. Williams, Gomez, Berenguer, Guruzeta
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Rudiger, Militao, Alexander-Arnold, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Bellingham, Valverde, Vinicius, Mbappe
Los Blancos to drop points again
This is the sixth straight away fixture for Real Madrid in all competitions. Their long run of matches away from the Santiago Bernabeu has featured only one win so far. That victory came via a 4-3 margin against Olympiacos in the Champions League.
They struggled to create chances until the final 30 minutes against lowly Girona on Sunday. Los Blancos can rely on Mbappe for goals, but the rest of the team’s output has been poor. Only three other Real Madrid players have scored more than once in La Liga this term.
Athletic can take confidence from one of their best displays of a disappointing season at the weekend. They created 2.9 xG in their 2-0 win over Levante.
Ernesto Valverde is likely to set his team up more conservatively in this match. They’ve been reasonably solid defensively at home, having conceded only 0.86 goals per 90 minutes in La Liga. That suggests the visitors could be restricted to a fourth straight league draw.
- Athletic Club vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Draw at odds of 4.04 on 1xBet
Mbappe to strike at San Mames
Alonso arrived at the Bernabeu with a reputation for being an excellent tactician who could spark improvements across the pitch. There has been little evidence of that so far, but he is getting the best out of Mbappe.
The Frenchman is now very much the focal point of this attack. He has scored five times in his last two matches alone. Moreover, he scored a penalty at Girona, taking his tally to 14 goals in 14 appearances in La Liga this term.
Mbappe has scored 28 goals for club and country overall in the 2025/26 campaign. Those goals have come at a stunning strike rate of one every 72 minutes. He’s recorded an average of 4.8 shots per game in La Liga, and seems capable of scoring again at San Mames.
- Athletic Club vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Kylian Mbappe to score anytime at odds of 1.77 on 1xBet
Competitive clash to feature a few goals
Aside from Mbappe, there aren’t many other players who could score in this clash. Athletic have struggled in the final third this term, having netted just 1.00 goals per game on average in La Liga. Four of their last five matches in all competitions have ended with two or fewer goals.
Oihan Sancet, their top scorer last season, is suspended on Wednesday night. Maroan Sannadi, Inaki Williams, and Robert Navarro are also struggling with injuries.
Real Madrid have seemed vulnerable in recent weeks against teams that press aggressively. They could only draw 0-0 at Rayo Vallecano in November. They also lost 1-0 to Liverpool a few days before that, with Los Blancos creating under 1.0 xG on each occasion.
This could be a similar type of match, with Athletic keen to press high up the pitch. There is value in backing under 2.5 goals with an implied probability of 48.8%.
- Athletic Club vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.16 on 1xBet