Why Orlando Pirates can put one hand on the Premier Soccer League title before 2025 AFCON

Pirates and Sundowns, as predicted, have emerged as the two most legitimate contenders to take the title this time around. 

Sundowns' grip on the trophy has been tight; they've been champions for eight seasons running, and in nine of the last 10. Pirates have become domestic cup specialists in recent seasons but haven't won the Premier Soccer League since 2012.

This season looks like their best chance to end the hoodoo. Abdeslam Ouaddou's side sits only three points adrift of Sundowns, but, crucially, they have two games in hand.

The Brazilians have collected an average of 2.12 points per game in 52 outings under Miguel Cardoso. That's impressive, considering Manqoba Mngqithi picked up an average of 2.11 points per game in a much smaller sample of 19 matches.

Rhulani Mokwena's brilliance is a tough act to follow. His average points-per-game tally was 2.22 in 91 matches for Sundowns. It's not that Cardoso is doing badly; it's just that the standards at this club are so high and Pirates' emergence might have closed the gap enough to see a changing of the guard.

Sundowns fans have feasted during most of this millennium; seeing their side fail to win the title would be a strange sight. 

Ever since the enforced sale of Brazilian forward Lucas Ribeiro, Sundowns have lacked some of the creative zip and go-forward ball he provided. 

Ribeiro had an astonishing 2024/25 campaign, winning the Golden Boot with 16 league strikes, and also weighing in with nine assists for teammates. He was, by far and away, the finest player in South Africa last season. The 27-year-old is now with Spanish Segunda Division side Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa.

Ribeiro's replacements are Portuguese Nuno Santos and the talented but unpredictable Tsiki Ntsabeleng. Losing a talisman is never easy, and Sundowns are still navigating that transition period.

Sipho Mbule has tongues wagging after a pair of assists for Bafana against Zambia in a friendly. We can't call him a key operator yet, as he's not yet scored or assisted in 14 Pirates outings, but he seems to be enjoying his football again. Teboho Mokoena, arguably South Africa's most stylish and consistent outfield performer in the last five years, is a man Mbule knows well from their time together at the now-defunct SuperSport and Mbule's stint at Sundowns. 

Pirates captain Nkosinathi Sibisi is back in business, starting their last two matches across all competitions. He's also been a starter for Bafana in their last three outings, a sequence in which they've conceded just one goal. Defensive units win titles, and Sibisi seems to be the marshal of Hugo Broos' back four. 

Bafana Bafana captain Ronwen Williams will be an emotional man when he leads his country out at the 2025 AFCON, hoping to help them go even further than their semi final berth in 2023. Quite what toll that takes on him before the second half of the domestic season remains to be seen. 

At the sharp end of the pitch, Orlando Pirates striker Evidence Makgopa continues to silence doubters with mature, classy performances as the number 9. Could he be the man to score decisive goals on the national or domestic stages and turn himself into a cult figure and eternal hero? 

Pirates play both of their games in hand before Sundowns kick another ball in anger in the league. 

The Buccaneers have fixtures at home to rock-bottom Chippa on 25 November and then a trip to Durban City on 29 November. That Durban City match is the toughest on paper. Gavin Hunt's newcomers have made a great start, winning 18 points after 12 games at a rate of 1.5 points per game. Keep that up, and they'll comfortably secure safety in the top-flight. If Pirates win there, it would be a big statement of intent. 

Sundowns' fixture congestion will mean that they must rotate their star-studded squad to negotiate two CAF Champions League matches before they play again in the PSL, by which time they may already be playing catch-up. Their continental challenges are at home to Saint Lupopo on 22 November and away to MC Alger on the 28th. Their only remaining PSL fixture before the AFCON break is on 2 December, away to Siwelele. 

Games in hand aren't worth as much as points in the bank, so Pirates must capitalise in the best way possible by winning their next two games and applying scoreboard pressure to the champions. 

International tournaments can complicate things tremendously for club sides, but they can also provide extra impetus.

A huge proportion of the entire Bafana Bafana squad at 2025 AFCON will comprise Mamelodi Sundowns and Orlando Pirates players. Of the 23 footballers recently called up to face Zambia, 15 were from Pirates and Sundowns (Pirates had eight, Sundowns seven). 

With so many players heading to Morocco, the chance of burnout and injury increases dramatically. 

Title-winning sides often need a slice of luck to go all the way, and that luck might come in the form of escaping injuries to key players.

There hasn't been a tight title race in South Africa for some time, but that's almost certainly going to change in 2025/26. 

Regardless of what happens between now and the AFCON break, we won't be much closer to knowing how things will pan out in May 2026.

Sundowns have 25 points from 12, an average return of 2.08 points per game, while Pirates have 22 points from 10 outings at a neat average of 2.2 PPG. 

Unusually, Sundowns have already drawn four matches, namely away to Kaizer Chiefs, Chippa and Marumo Gallants. The other draw was on the first of this month at home to Pirates.

Who knows, Camran Dansin's screamer of an equaliser in that match could be a symbolic moment and a sign that the pendulum is about to swing in South African football.