Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Colombia are without Daniel Muñoz through suspension for this weekend’s Copa America final against Argentina. Breakout star Richard Rios is also a doubt after going off with a leg injury during the semi-final win over Uruguay.
These two players have been key to Colombia’s run to the final. Muñoz is among the tournament leaders in tackles per game, while Rios’ presence in central midfield has been integral in Colombia maintaining an exceptional defensive record.
- Muñoz averages 4.4 tackles per match, which is the joint-fifth most in the Copa America
- Colombia have conceded just two goals in the tournament so far
- Rios leads the tournament in dribbles per game and had four interceptions across the last two matches
Favoured Argentina Get Further Boost
Muñoz, who was sent off in a fiery semi-final against Uruguay, is a significant loss for Colombia. His likely replacement, Santiago Arias, is very experienced with 58 international caps, but he hasn’t started an international match since last October.
Collecting 5.6 ball recoveries per match, Muñoz has been effective defensively, while also adding a couple of goals and an assist. Arias has not matched those numbers, averaging just 2.01 tackles per 90 over the last year.
Rios is perhaps even more important than Muñoz. The 24-year-old leads the Copa America with 3.2 dribbles per match, which is a remarkable feat given the elite dribblers in this tournament. He’s also claimed four interceptions over his last two matches.
Veteran midfielder Mateus Uribe should be a reliable replacement for Rios, but he’s started just one competitive international match this year and has been playing his club football in Saudi Arabia since the end of 2022-23. Uribe is a midfield stopper rather than a ball carrier, which could help against Argentina, but he doesn’t provide the same impetus in the middle third.
Colombia Overmatched Against World Champions
Argentina needed penalties to get past Ecuador and then faced Canada in the last four. It hasn’t been the most spectacular tournament from the world champions, but they have conceded a single goal so far and are rightly favoured over this Colombia team.
Where Colombia have overachieved their expected goals by 3.26, Argentina have underachieved by 4.42. Lautaro Martinez and Lionel Messi are two of the Copa America’s top five in expected goals generated, with Martinez finding the net four times and averaging 0.3 expected goals per shot.
Muñoz’s absence weakens Colombia defensively, and if Rios is unable to start, their midfield could be too pedestrian. His ability to carry the ball is a great pressure release against a team as talented as Argentina.
We expect La Albiceleste to secure the win inside 90 minutes this weekend, with Martinez grabbing his fifth goal of the tournament.