Newcastle have taken seven points from their first three matches in 2024-25, despite playing with 10 men for the majority of their match against Southampton. Only Liverpool and Manchester City have more points than the Magpies thus far.
- Newcastle have seven points from three matches.
- The Magpies dropped points in four out of six Premier League following Champions League fixtures last season.
- Eddie Howe’s side posted the fifth-best expected goal difference per 90.
Premier League Outright Market | Newcastle Odds |
|---|---|
PL Winner | |
PL Winner Without Manchester City | |
Top 4 | |
Top 6 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Benefits of No European Football
Eddie Howe’s team finished seventh last season in what was ultimately seen as a disappointing campaign. They were fifth in expected goal difference, though, and had to battle a raft of injuries. Only six players – Miguel Almiron, Dan Burn, Sean Longstaff, Anthony Gordon, Fabian Schär, Bruno Guimarães – made more than 30 league appearances.
Tino Livramento, Harvey Barnes, Callum Wilson, and Nick Pope were all sidelined for significant periods. Sandro Tonali was suspended. Placing fifth in expected goal difference despite those injuries was an impressive achievement, even if they failed to qualify for European competition.
That, however, should be a blessing for the Magpies. The stresses of Champions League football took its toll on Howe’s squad both in the injuries suffered and fatigue. Newcastle only won two of their six league matches directly after Champions League fixtures, including a draw away to Wolves and a defeat at Bournemouth.
Even with Newcastle’s solid start, Betway still has Chelsea and Tottenham at a shorter price for a top-four finish. The Magpies beat Tottenham before the international break. Chelsea have a lot of work to do under Enzo Maresca. Newcastle have a 26.7% implied probability of finishing in the top four according to Betway’s odds, which seems harsh given their underlying metrics last season.
Strong Squad Poised To Challenge
It was a quiet summer at St. James’ Park, but their squad depth should not be tested as much this season without the rigours of continental competition. The attacking triumvirate of Gordon, Barnes, and Alexander Isak already looks ferocious.
Chelsea and Tottenham are dealing with midweek fixtures, as are Manchester United. Newcastle’s focus can solely be on competing for Champions League qualification. With matches away to Wolves and Fulham to come after the international break, there’s a good chance their top four and top six odds will shorten notably in the next few weeks before they face Manchester City at the end of the month.
There might not be a better time to back Newcastle for a top-four placing. It’s inevitable that Spurs, Chelsea, and Manchester United will drop a few unexpected points once the Europa League and Conference League get underway. Erik ten Hag, Ange Postecoglou, and Maresca cannot afford to put all their eggs in the Premier League basket.
It’s easy to overlook Newcastle. There was no headline-grabbing managerial change, nor did they splash the cash like in previous transfer windows, but Howe has proven he can coach a top-four side. This squad has plenty of quality if they avoid the same injury crises which derailed the 2023-24 campaign.