The first few rounds of group stage games saw a load of goals scored from outside the box, with 6% of the first 237 long range shots taken being goals.
However, as the tournament has progressed, these have seriously dried up, a trend that’s lead to our expert pointing out the one market you should steer clear of going forward.
To Score from Outside the Area Odds - Euro 2024 Quarter Finals
Euro 2024 Match | Player |
|---|---|
Spain vs Germany | Rodri |
France vs Portugal | Cristiano Ronaldo |
England vs Switzerland | Harry Kane |
Netherlands vs Turkey | Cody Gakpo |
The Trend is your Friend
As already stated, the first half of the Euros saw a number of goals from range, with 14 of the first 237 proving to be goals from outside the area.
This is a trend that was always going to be unsustainable, especially as the worser teams got eliminated.
The favourites are more well-drilled and likely to try and fashion a chance that has a higher chance of going in as opposed to shooting from range.
This has not only seen less shots from outside the area being taken, but a lot less long range goals being scored as well.
Long Rangers All Dried Up
As already stated, the first 6% of 237 shots from range ended up going in, however that ratio has dropped dramatically since then.
Of the last 210 shots from outside the box, none have ended up in the back of the net, with the numbers slowly starting to trend towards the mean following a lively start to the tournament.
Given this, it’s definitely worthwhile avoiding the ‘Player to Score from Outside the Box’ market.
As seen in the table above, bar the outlier of Cody Gakpo, almost all players will be around 12/1 to score from outside the area.
This would be a worthwhile bet had the long range goals not dried up, with 12/1 odds implying that there’s 8.5% chance of an event happening.
However, now that just 14 of the last 447 shots from range have gone in, a conversation rate of 3%, it seems this market is definitely one to avoid going forward.