Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Flag Man To Win Durban July | 12.00 |
Purple Pitcher To Win Durban July | 25.00 |
Switzerland To Beat England | 3.75 |
Turkey To Beat Netherlands | 5.50 |
Odds are courtesy of Betway, true as of 05/07/24.
It’s a huge Saturday of sport. Two of the Euro 2024 quarter finals will be making the headlines, but there’s also the small matter of one of the world’s most prestigious horse races in South Africa. A stacked field is competing in the Durban July, where there is plenty of betting value.
While these are two very different events, the view of our betting expert is that a similar strategy could be successful at both the European Championships in Germany and Greyville racecourse.
Longshot Options in South Africa & Germany
There are plenty of appealing outsiders for the Durban July. Several three-year-old horses have significant upside against some of the older competitors. The unique challenges posed by the inclines and declines at Greyville can lead to unfavoured horses posing a real threat.
We have seen several horses in outside stalls put up great runs in recent years, and there are several candidates who could replicate that effort. Starting in stall 17, we would keep a keen eye on Flag Man at 12.00. A strong run in the Daily News 2000 shows the Gareth van Zyl-trained horse is capable of competing in races of this calibre.
Comfortable with longer races, Purple Pitcher has had some great results over the last couple of years, and could also represent value at 25.00.
This trend of longshot betting options carries over to the Euros. Kicking off after Durban July takes place, you can switch to the football coverage for England vs Switzerland and Netherlands vs Turkey.
Two Outsiders With Value At Euros
England have been unimpressive in the Euros so far. After grinding out a win over Serbia, the Three Lions drew with Slovenia and Denmark before needing a last-minute comeback to knockout Slovakia.
While Gareth Southgate’s team are still favoured over Switzerland in the last eight, they are out at 2.20 to win the match. Switzerland, meanwhile, have drawn with Germany, beaten Hungary, and thoroughly outplayed Italy in the round of 16. A more talented team than Slovakia, Switzerland have played at a higher level than England so far in this tournament, and we think there’s value in taking them at 3.75 to win the match in 90 minutes.
Similarly, the Netherlands haven’t exactly set the tournament alight. Their wins over Poland and Romania were expected, but they lost to Austria and failed to score against France. Ronald Koeman’s team do not deserve to be so heavily favoured against Turkiye.
Turkiye had to ride some luck against Austria in the round of 16, but it was ultimately a committed and resilient team performance. Hakan Çalhanoglu returns from suspension, giving them a greater threat in possession.
With three wins from four matches and several talented attacking players, the 18.2% implied probability on a Turkiye win is too low. The Netherlands have only generated 4.67 expected goals in four matches, and Austria showed their defence can be vulnerable.