France vs Poland Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for France vs Poland
- Under 0.5 total goals in the first half with odds of @ 3.30 on Betway, equating to a 30.3% implied probability.
- Olivier Giroud to score anytime with odds of @ 2.05 on Betway, equating to a 48.8% implied probability.
- Under 2.5 total goals with odds of @ 2.30 on Betway, equating to a 43.5% implied probability.
We predict a low-scoring game between France and Poland on matchday three and are backing France to win 1-0 or 2-0.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Poland are already eliminated after losing their first two matches, and will be playing for pride when they face France on Tuesday. Les Bleus are almost guaranteed of a place in the knockout rounds, but will be keen to top the group.
Finishing first or second should give France a favourable knockout round matchup. If they slip to third, however, they could be lined up with England or Spain in the round of 16.
Kylian Mbappe’s broken nose has been the biggest storyline of the tournament to date. While Mbappe is going to return at some point, he was an unused substitute on Friday, and it would be a surprise if France decided to risk him here. We expect the world’s best player to be available off the bench.
Poland have had their own star injury to worry about in Robert Lewandowski. The White-Reds are on the verge of making unwanted history as the first Poland side to not pick up a point in a major tournament group stage.
Probable Lineups for France vs Poland
France probable XI:
Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Konate, Hernandez; Coman, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Rabiot; Griezmann, Giroud.
Poland probable XI:
Szczesny; Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior; Frankowski, Zielinski, Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski; Buksa, Piatek.
Cagey First Half
Assuming Kylian Mbappe won’t be available to start, we anticipate a goalless first 45 minutes in Dortmund. France’s record without Mbappe is very poor, and their attack was lacking a cutting edge against the Netherlands on Friday.
France are winless in their last seven matches without Mbappe. While Poland have been a disappointment in their first two matches, suffering consecutive defeats, they will be keen to take something from this group stage.
This Poland team is certainly capable of making life difficult for France. They drew with Spain at Euro 2020, beat Germany in a friendly last year, and drew with the Netherlands in the 2022 Nations League.
Look for a cagey first half with France still struggling in Mbappe’s absence.
- France vs Poland Bet 1: Under 0.5 first half goals @ 3.30 with Betway
Giroud Delivers Again For Les Bleus
Olivier Giroud should return to the France starting lineup for Tuesday’s match. Marcus Thuram was ineffective as the lone striker on Friday, and Didier Deschamps surely won’t risk Kylian Mbappe from the start when he doesn’t need to.
Giroud is France’s all-time leading scorer. He scored 17 goals for Milan in the 2023-24 campaign. Despite being in his twilight years, the former Arsenal man has never relied on pace. He still excels as a hold-up man and finisher.
Giroud’s performances at major tournaments have been much better than his goal tally of five suggests. Preempting some rotation from Deschamps, we like Giroud to score anytime at this price.
- France vs Poland Bet 2: Olivier Giroud Anytime Scorer @ 2.05 with Betway
Back The Under
France have seen one goal in two matches. That was an own goal by Austria’s Maximilian Wöber. It’s been an underwhelming start to the tournament from Les Bleus, and Didier Deschamps’ team selection on Friday indicated he will be prioritising solidity over flair.
A draw is enough to guarantee France’s progress. Deschamps packed the midfield on Friday, naming Adrien Rabiot on the left flank in a similar role to the one Blaise Matuidi filled in previous tournaments.
Poland’s defence has conceded five goals in two matches, but the under was a profitable option for them during qualifying. Their last five games in their qualifying group had two or fewer goals.
- France vs Poland Bet 3: Under 2.5 total goals @ 2.30 with Betway