France vs Italy Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for France vs Italy
- France Victory with odds @1.65 on Betway, equating to a 60.6% chance of Les Bleus winning.
- Over 2.5 goals with odds @1.85 on Betway, indicating a 54.1% chance of at least three goals being scored.
- Yes on Both teams to score with odds @1.85 on Betway, representing a 54.1% chance for both clubs to find the back of the net.
France should be expected to win against Italy by a scoreline of 3-1.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
France and Italy are two of 16 nations competing across four groups in Nations League A. They are in Group 2 alongside Belgium and Israel, probably the strongest of the four groups. The top two in each group qualify for the two-legged quarter-final stage in March 2025, with the four winners progressing to the Finals in June.
After being installed as one of the pre-tournament favourites, France fell short at Euro 2024. Not helped by talisman Kylian Mbappé suffering a broken nose in the opening fixture against Austria.
Les Bleus did make it to the semi-final before losing to eventual winners Spain. Mbappé will feature here despite pleas from new club Real Madrid for him to be rested.
Italy were unable to retain their crown after being eliminated by Switzerland in the Round of 16. They managed only one win at the group stage and that came against Albania in their opening fixture.
These nations have faced each other 39 times in international football with Italy holding the advantage by 19 wins to 11 with 9 draws. Those fixtures have produced 138 goals at an average of 3.54.
Probable Lineups for France vs Italy
The probable lineup for France in the "4-3-3"
Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Saliba, Hernandez; Kante, Tchouameni, Zaire-Emery; Dembele, Kolo Muani, Mbappé
The probable lineup for Italy in the "4-3-3"
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Calafiori, Bastoni, Udogie; Frattesi, Fagioli, Pellegrini; Retegui, Kean, Raspadori.
Les Bleus to best
The 2022 World Cup runners-up take on the EURO 2020 winners as France welcome Italy on Matchday 1. Les Bleus, one of only three nations to win this competition, have won the last three meetings between the sides.
This contest between two of European football's traditional powerhouses also pits two coaches with contrasting levels of international experience against each other. Didier Deschamps has just celebrated 12 years in charge of the national team, his opposite number Luciano Spalletti only took the reins from Roberto Mancini last September.
The French will be eager to regain a trophy they lifted in Milan in 2021 and getting off to a winning start on home soil is imperative. They won their last Nations League game in Paris defeating Austria 2-0, while they were perfect at home in Euros qualification winning all four fixtures and scoring 21 goals in the process.
France vs Italy Bet 1: France Victory @1.65 with Betway
Paris, the city of…goals
The last two meetings between the nations have ended in 3-1 victories for France with a 2-1 success before that. Hopes of a similar outcome will have been boosted by Kylian Mbappé making himself available for selection despite his club's wishes.
The new Real Madrid signing has scored seven goals in 15 Nations League appearances so far - more than any other Frenchman. He will come into this clash in supreme confidence having got off the mark in La Liga by scoring both goals in a 2-0 win against Betis on Sunday.
Spalletti has conceded this represents a tough test for his men. However, as an attack-minded coach expect him to go about this by trying to outscore the hosts rather than contain them. He has taken charge of 10 competitive internationals which have seen an average of 2.80 goals.
France vs Italy Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals @1.85 with Betway
Both sides come to party this Friday night
As mentioned France have beaten Italy with both teams scoring in each of their past three meetings. This suggests the potential for another high-scoring affair, with the teams' defensive vulnerabilities likely to be exposed.
Deschamps saw his defence falter in the most recent edition of this competition. They finished third in their group, narrowly avoiding relegation, conceding seven goals and at least once in five of their six fixtures.
Italy made the most disastrous start to this summer’s European Championship conceding the fastest-ever goal in the competition's history in their opening fixture and to tournament minnows Albania. It was a trend that continued with the Azzurri conceding at least once in all four games in Germany culminating in an exit in the Round of 16 to Switzerland.
France vs Italy Bet 3: Yes on Both Teams to Score @1.85 with Betway