Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
- Atletico Madrid to Win and No on Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 with Betway, representing a 51.3% chance of Atletico winning and keeping a clean sheet.
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 with Betway, equating to a 54.1% chance of the game featuring less than three goals.
- Half With Most Goals (1st Half) @ 3.00 with Betway, equating to a 33.3% chance of the first half having more goals scored than the second half.
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Atletico Madrid will maintain their strong home record against Valencia with a routine 2-0 victory on Sunday night.
Our Analysis: Assessing the Form of Both Teams
It’s 3rd place meets 20th place on Sunday evening as Atletico Madrid play host to Valencia at Estadio Civitas Metropolitano.
Atleti have made a rock-solid start to the 2024/25 La Liga season, averaging two points per game from their opening four fixtures.
As we’ve come to expect from Diego Simeone’s side, Atletico’s success is founded upon its watertight backline rather than a free-flowing attack. They’ve conceded just twice in four games so far this term. The addition of pressing machine Conor Gallagher from Chelsea will only enhance Atleti’s ability to defend from the front too.
In stark contrast, it couldn’t have gone much worse for Valencia so far this season. Three defeats and a solitary draw leave Los Ches rooted at the foot of La Liga.
They stopped the rot in game week four, clinching a 1-1 draw with local rivals Villarreal in a fiercely contested derby.
Probable Lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Valencia
The probable lineup for Atletico Madrid in 3-4-2-1:
Musso; Mandava, Le Normand, Gimenez, Llorente, Lino, Koke, Barrios, Callagher, Griezmann, Alvarez
The probable lineup for Valencia in 4-4-2:
Mamardashvili; Correia, Vazquez, Tarrega, Mosquera, Lopez, Rioja, Guillamon, Pepelu, Almeida, Duro
Atleti to continue their home dominance over Valencia
You have to go back as far as 2011 to find Valencia’s last away win at Atletico Madrid. In fact, Los Ches have only won three times at Atleti since the turn of the new millennium.
Diego Simeone’s men are hugely efficient in front of their own fans and will look to give very little encouragement to the visitors.
The hosts have kept clean sheets in their last two home games against Valencia and, given the flagging morale of Los Ches, there’s nothing to suggest they can’t make it a hat-trick.
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 1: Atletico Madrid to Win and No on Both Teams to Score @ 1.95 with Betway
No expectations for a goalfest
We’ve already discussed Atletico’s controlled and disciplined style of play. It’s yielded just six goals in four matches. Meanwhile, Valencia have scored only three goals in their opening four fixtures.
With Valencia’s profligate attack likely to have fewer opportunities against Atleti’s backline than the likes of Celta Vigo and Athletic Bilbao, it could be a long night for the visiting supporters.
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 with Vbet and @ 1.85 with Betway
Game could be decided by half time
Only five of the 18 goals scored in matches involving Atletico Madrid and Valencia so far this season came in the second half.
This suggests Simeone is encouraging his Atletico players to go for the jugular early in matches to gain the upper hand and control the game from a position of strength. Valencia have proven to be vulnerable in the opening 45 minutes too, conceding twice to Celta Vigo and once to Bilbao and Barcelona in the first half.
At odds of 3.00, we feel there’s more than a 33% chance of the first period yielding more goals than the second 45.
Atletico Madrid vs Valencia Tip 3: Half With Most Goals (1st Half) @ 3.00 with Betway