Atletico Madrid vs Getafe Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Atletico Madrid vs Getafe
- Atletico Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score (No) at odds of 2.15 with Betway
- Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.65 with Betway
- Draw/Atletico Madrid (Half Time/Full Time) at odds of 4.00 with Betway
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Atletico Madrid last won a Copa del Rey in 2013 and they’ll know that a victory over Getafe on Tuesday night puts them within one win of this season’s final. Atletico are in superb form this season, losing only twice in La Liga and winning six of their eight Champions League games.
Diego Simeone’s side have never been known for their flair and attacking prowess, but their highly structured system is once again paying dividends this season.
They face Jose Bordalas’ Getafe in the last eight of the Copa del Rey. Since Getafe is within the Community of Madrid, this is essentially a local derby. However, Azulones have won just five in 22 La Liga games and have had a relatively easy run to reach this stage of the Copa del Rey.
Probable Lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Getafe:
Atletico Madrid Expected Lineup: Oblak; Llorente, Azpilicueta, Lenglet, Le Normand, Lino, Koke, Gallagher, Simeone, Griezmann, Sorloth
Getafe Expected Lineup: Soria; Iglesias, Rico, Duarte, Berrocal, Perez, da Costa, Djene, Arambarri, Juanmi, Uche
Atleti Aim for 24th Win in 33 Clashes with Getafe
Diego Simeone’s men have largely had the upper hand over Getafe, winning 23 of their last 32 competitive meetings, with Getafe winning only three.
Although Atleti are battling on multiple fronts, sitting just a point behind La Liga leaders Real Madrid and reaching the last 16 of the Champion League, their winning mindset is sure to shine through on Tuesday evening.
During Atletico’s 2-0 home league win over Real Mallorca on Saturday, Simeone was able to rest key players such as Antoine Griezmann and Cono Gallagher, who came off the bench. This leaves them relatively fresh for Getafe, who will face a challenging encounter, despite being four games unbeaten in the league.
With Atleti keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their games, we’ll take them at 2.15 to win with a clean sheet, which Betway has priced at a probability of 46.5%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Getafe Bet 1: Atletico Madrid to Win and Both Teams to Score No at odds of 2.15 with Betway
Copa del Rey Quarterfinal Expected to Lack Goals
Although Atletico find themselves as Real’s biggest challenger for the La Liga title this season, Diego Simeone’s side have been far from prolific going forward. They’ve scored 37 goals in 22 games, but it’s their elite defensive record that once again gives them the edge.
Conceding just 14 goals in 22 games is a hugely impressive statistic. Combine this with the fact that Getafe have scored just 17 goals in 22 games and it’s hard to see the hosts being overly troubled.
On the flip side, Getafe have also conceded 17 goals too, suggesting they, like Atletico, often adopt a safety-first style. Given the similar matchup in styles, out of our three Atletico Madrid vs Getafe predictions, a low-scoring contest is our most confident pick here.
- Atletico Madrid vs Getafe Bet 2: Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 1.65 with Betway
Hosts Set to Dominate After Cautious First Half
Delving deeper into the first and second half performances of both sides, it’s clear to see a possible pattern for the game to play out. Getafe have been level at the interval in 80% of their games so far this season. Meanwhile, Atletico have only been leading 40% of their games at half time this season.
In addition, Atletico have gone on to win the second half in 70% of their games, with Getafe only capable of winning 30% of their games in the second period.
That’s why we’re planning to take the Draw/Atletico Madrid bet in the Half Time/Full Time market. Given Atleti’s busy week in the Champions League and their tight win over Mallorca on Saturday, Simeone’s side are unlikely to start quickly. However, we expect them to grind Getafe down eventually, which plays nicely into this betting angle.
- Atletico Madrid vs Getafe Bet 3: Draw/Atletico Madrid (Half Time/Full Time) at odds of 4.00 with Betway