We are all dealing with an unknown at this time of year, and it can work in the favour of bettors in matches like Southampton against Nottingham Forest this weekend.
- Southampton are narrowly favoured to beat Nottingham Forest at home this weekend.
- Newly-promoted teams have fared poorly in their opening home matches over the last decade.
- Forest underachieved their expected goals in 2023-24.
| Asian Handicap | Odds |
|---|---|
Southampton -0.5 | |
Southampton 0/-0.5 | |
Southampton 0 | |
Nottingham Forest 0/-0.5 | |
Nottingham Forest 0 | |
Nottingham Forest 0/+0.5 |
Odds courtesy of 10bet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Bookies Misplacing Asian Handicaps
If you backed the newly-promoted teams on the Asian handicap in their first home games of the season since 2014, you would be down around six units. Bookies appear to be overestimating teams who spent last season in the Championship, and this was evident once again with Ipswich Town being -1.5 against Liverpool. They lost 2-0.
Last season, both Sheffield United and Burnley failed to cover. Luton were +.75 at home to West Ham, but lost 2-1. The gap between the Championship and Premier League has unquestionably grown over the last decade (evident in all three newly-promoted sides going back down last season), but have bookies adapted their season-opening lines sufficiently?
This weekend, Southampton are slight favourites over Nottingham Forest. Saints -0.5 is 2.45. Southampton impressed away to Newcastle, recording 19 shots and dominating possession against 10 men, but Forest are far from a walkover. The visitors drew with Bournemouth last weekend and had a better expected goal difference than seven Premier League teams in 2023-24, including Manchester United and West Ham.
History Against Southampton
If we go back to the start of the 2022-23 season, Fulham, Bournemouth, and Forest all covered in their opening home matches. The trio have proven to be anomalous, as all three have survived consecutive Premier League seasons. Importantly, they were also all underdogs for their first home fixtures.
We have to go all the way back to 2019-20 for the last time a newly-promoted team was favoured in their opening home match and provided a winner on the Asian handicap.
This seems like bookies think the gap between the bottom-half Premier League sides and the top teams in the Championship is smaller than it is. They overestimate how competitive the newly-promoted teams will be, and perhaps get a bit carried away with the impact of home advantage.
They might have finished 17th, but Forest’s underlying metrics painted them as a solid mid-table team last season. There is deserved optimism about Southampton, yet recent history suggests bookies are misjudging the hosts by making them favourites for this contest.
Given that Forest finished last season with wins away to Burnley and Sheffield United, we like the value on Forest 0/+0.5 here. Bettors can take advantage of the uncertainty that comes with the beginning of a new season, and bookmakers’ tendency to be overly confident in the newly-promoted sides.