PSG have a perfect record in this season’s UCL league phase so far. Villarreal have just three points, and their games have had 5.33 goals on average.
Best bets for Villarreal vs PSG
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92 with 1xBet
- PSG to win and both teams to score at odds of 2.40 with 1xBet
- Désiré Doué anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.15 with 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Villarreal 1-3 PSG
- Goalscorers prediction: Villarreal: Mikautadze - PSG: Doué, Torres, Hakimi
Villarreal and Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) meet in a competitive fixture for the first time in history on Tuesday night. It’s Matchday 4 of the UCL league phase in 2026/27.
Villarreal sit 19th in the league phase, with three points from three games. They led Liverpool 2-0 at Anfield before succumbing to a 4-3 loss against Andoni Iraola’s men a fortnight ago. They also lost 3-2 to Borussia Dortmund.
They landed their only Champions League victory on home soil, a 3-1 win over Serie A side Napoli. However, their home form has been far from spectacular in 2026/27. They’ve picked up just four points from their first five La Liga home fixtures.
Luis Enrique’s defending UCL champions have won all three of their league phase games. Their landmark 4-2 win at Manchester City underlined their credentials to retain their trophy again this term.
Preparations for this game couldn’t have been better, having won a Friday night Ligue 1 clash at Le Havre 5-1. However, they will be without the services of Marquinhos, Ousmane Dembele, Nuno Mendes and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia through injury.
Probable lineups for Villarreal vs PSG
Villarreal expected lineup: Gulacsi, Mourino, Pau Navarro, Veiga, Cardona, Macia, Comesana, Buchanan, Moleiro, Gerard Moreno, Mikautadze
Paris Saint-Germain expected lineup: Safonov, Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Pacho, Hernandez, Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz, Doué, Torres, Akliouche
Two forward lines in full flow should yield plenty of goals
PSG have scored 14 goals in three league phase games. That rate of 4.67 per match makes them comfortably the competition’s most potent attack.
Villarreal’s European nights have been even more eventful. Their three games have produced 16 goals between them. They lost 3-2 at Dortmund and 4-3 at Liverpool. Even their home win over Napoli finished 3-1.
Paris have also conceded in every league phase outing, with five goals going past Matvei Safonov.
Although PSG will be without Kvaratskhelia and Dembele here, we still expect them to play freely. It’ll still be an open game. Both teams have seen four to five goals per game on average. Therefore, we’re happy to back over 3.5 goals at an implied probability of 55.56%.
- Villarreal vs PSG Bet 1: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92 with 1xBet
Les Parisiens take the win, but Villarreal make a game of it
Villarreal have taken just four points from five home league games. Espanyol won 1-0 at El Madrigal on Friday. That is a poor platform against the competition’s form side. Remember, PSG come into this contest on a nine-game winning streak.
However, the hosts have continued to find the net in Europe. Villarreal have found the net in all three league phase games so far in 2026/27.
Luis Enrique’s PSG offer encouragement for opposition attacks too. They have conceded in every European outing this season. They are without Nuno Mendes (muscle) and Marquinhos (thigh) from their first-choice backline.
Although Villarreal have managed only six goals in five home league fixtures, they seem to play with more freedom in the UCL. We’re happy to back PSG to get the job done without a clean sheet at a 41.7% implied probability. This looks like the value play from our trio of Villarreal vs PSG predictions.
- Villarreal vs PSG Bet 2: PSG to win and both teams to score at odds of 2.40 with 1xBet
Backing Doué to carry the load in Kvaratskhelia’s absence
Désiré Doué has netted two goals in his last two Champions League appearances. He scored in the 38th minute against Barcelona and also opened the scoring at Manchester City.
It’s a decent return for a wide forward, especially against the calibre of Barca and City. FotMob rated those displays at 8.75 apiece. His shot volume is the draw for this bet. Doué ranks in the 97th percentile for shot attempts among wingers.
Domestically, he’s also fired in 24 shots during Ligue 1 games this season. With Dembele and Kvaratskhelia sidelined through injury, he becomes an even bigger focal point at El Madrigal.
Although his xG per 90 is just 0.48, his form and the fact he’s likely to be PSG’s key attacker make us keen on this bet. We can back him to score anytime at a 46.5% implied probability.
- Villarreal vs PSG Bet 3: Désiré Doué anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.15 with 1xBet