Les Bleus have been largely unconvincing since Zinedine Zidane assumed the helm, but they keep getting the job done. Will that continue on Monday?
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Best bets for France vs Belgium
- Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.60 with 1xBet
- Draw-France (Half Time-Full Time) at odds of 4.50 with 1xBet
- Michael Olise 2+ Shots on Target at odds of 2.10 with 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: France 1-0 Belgium
- Goalscorers prediction: France: Ousmane Dembélé
France will host Belgium at the Stade de France on Monday night, 20:45 CET. These two have met in Brussels only a week ago, with Les Bleus running out narrow winners in their first matchup of League A, Group 1.
Backe then, France won that game 1-0 through a late Michael Olise solo goal. He struck on 88 minutes to settle a tight contest and win France the game.
France were then held 1-1 by Italy in Saint-Denis on Friday night. Olise struck again, curling in a free-kick before Alessandro Bastoni landed a deserved equaliser for Azzurri.
At the moment, Zinedine Zidane's side lead the group with seven points. France will be missing Dayot Upamecano, who is suspended after a second straight yellow against Italy. Kylian Mbappé is still sidelined with a knee problem, with Ousmane Dembélé set to assume the role of the starting forward.
Meanwhile, Belgium responded in style against Turkey on Friday. They won 3-0 with Kevin De Bruyne bagging an impressive brace. Mark van Bommel's team sit second in the group, right behind Les Bleus, on six points. A potential win in Paris would take them above France. However, it will still be a tall order for the Belgian side, especially after losing six straight head-to-head meetings against France.
Probable lineups for France vs Belgium
France expected lineup: Maignan; Truffert, Lacroix, Jacquet, Kalulu, Rabiot, Da Cunha, Cherki, Doue, Olise, Dembélé
Belgium expected lineup: Lammens; Castagne, De Cuyper, Mechele, Ngoy, Openda, Moreira, Vanaken, Lukebakio, Godts, Lukaku
France vs Belgium match-ups have been surprisingly tight of late
Recent games between France and Belgium have become tight, low-scoring affairs. In fact, three of their last four meetings produced only two goals or less in total. Last week's 1-0 win in Brussels is a perfect example.
Zinedine Zidane's France, compared to Didier Deschamps’, is built on control rather than chaos. His first three games in charge have yielded just four goals in total. However, they have conceded only once over that span.
Belgium could try to exploit that on Friday, especially given their current form. De Bruyne scored twice in their 3-0 win over Turkey. It felt like van Bommel’s side completely regained their confidence in how they played against Turkey. Mind you, France are also without Mbappé and Upamecano for this one, key players for Zidane’s system.
Nevertheless, backing two goals or less at a 38% implied probability feels like the value bet from our trio of France vs Belgium predictions. Just seven goals have been scored in their last four meetings dating back to Euro 2024,amounting to 1.75 per game.
- France vs Belgium Bet 1: Under 2.5 Goals at odds of 2.60 with 1xBet
Zidane’s France are becoming a second-half team
It feels like France keep saving their goals for after the first interval. All three of Zidane's games have been goalless at the break. Every goal France has produced under their legendary former midfielder has come in the second 45 of the game.
The pattern is remarkably consistent. Mbappé scored in the 54th minute against Turkey. Olise struck in Brussels on the 88th and on the 55th against Italy.
France won two of those three matches after a goalless first half, and one ended in a draw. Belgium will set up to contain early at the Stade de France. Zidane is currently working with a makeshift defence, with Maxence Lacroix slotting in instead of Upamecano.
Belgium might start to press early, but we don’t see them breaking France’s seal so easily. It feels like the likelihood of a cagey first period and the hosts snatching it in the second half is greater than the 22% implied probability the market’s offering.
- France vs Belgium Bet 2: Draw-France (Half Time-Full Time) at odds of 4.50 with 1xBet
Olise’s mercurial magic is fast becoming vital to Les Bleus
In Mbappé’s absence, Michael Olise is the one carrying France’s attack right now. He has scored in each of their last two matches, both in which Mbappé was missing. One was a solo run and the other a spectacular free-kick.
The underlying volume is strong as well. Olise has nine shots on target from 17 in the Bundesliga. He ranks in the 97th percentile among wingers for shot attempts. He also has four shots on target in just 181 minutes of the 2026/27 Nations League. That’s an average of 1.99 attempts on target per 90.
Olise is now the first-choice set-piece taker too. Belgium are also without Thibaut Courtois in goal again, with Man Utd’s Lammens continuing to start instead of him. At an implied probability of just 48%, we’re happy to back Olise to make two shots on target at least twice in Saint-Denis.
- France vs Belgium Bet 3: Michael Olise 2+ Shots on Target at odds of 2.10 with 1xBet