Our betting expert expects Kylian Mbappe to score first yet again in a game likely to remain cagey until the second half.
Best bets for Benfica vs Real Madrid
- Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.95 on Bet9ja
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66 on Bet9ja
- Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 1.96 on Bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Benfica 1-2 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Benfica: Vangelis Pavlidis - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe x2
After winning 6-1 against Monaco last week, Real Madrid are in a very strong position in the Champions League. They’re currently in third place, with a favourable goal difference of +11. A draw will almost certainly secure a round-of-16 place, but they’ll be targeting a top-four finish.
Benfica’s hopes of progressing into the play-off round are dependent on a victory. However, a 2-0 defeat to Juventus last week means they will also need favours elsewhere.
Both sides claimed victories in their domestic leagues over the weekend. Real Madrid won a tough fixture 2-0 at Villarreal. Meanwhile, Benfica triumphed 4-0 at home to Estrela da Amadora.
Probable lineups for Benfica vs Real Madrid
Benfica expected lineup: Trubin, Dahl, Silva, Otamendi, Dedic, Aursnes, Barrenechea, Sudakov, Barreiro, Prestianni, Pavlidis
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Asencio, Valverde, Bellingham, Tchouameni, Guler, Vinicius, Mbappe, Mastantuono
Mbappe to strike first again for Los Blancos
It has been an eventful start to 2026 at the Santiago Bernabeu. Xabi Alonso was sacked earlier this month. Alvaro Arbeloa’s reign started in disappointing fashion with a shocking cup defeat. However, recent results have been better, and the change has had little impact on Kylian Mbappe’s ability to score goals.
The Frenchman has scored first in all three of his appearances so far under Arbeloa. A weekend brace took his season tally to 21 goals in 20 outings in La Liga. He looks certain to win the Pichichi again in Spain.
Mbappe could also potentially break all kinds of records in the Champions League. He has scored 11 goals in the competition already and netted twice against Monaco last Tuesday. The 27-year-old has averaged a goal every 48 minutes in Europe this term.
Given that, Mbappe is the outstanding candidate to score first in this match. Even at low odds, he offers value to break the deadlock.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.95 on Bet9ja
High-scoring clash unlikely as Mourinho faces former club
Jose Mourinho’s reunion with Real Madrid adds another subplot to this game. The 63-year-old has not come up against Los Blancos since the 2017 UEFA Super Cup with Man Utd.
While Benfica do need to win, it’s still hard to see Mourinho adopting an all-out attacking approach. He’ll aim for his side to get a foothold in the match and give themselves a chance of snatching a decisive goal.
Real Madrid’s initial priority will be to avoid defeat. Losing the match could easily see them drop out of a congested top eight and into the play-offs.
We saw a slightly more pragmatic approach from Arbeloa at the weekend in a tricky away fixture. Franco Mastantuono started over Rodrygo on the right flank, while the team covered more ground defensively and restricted Villarreal to only 0.57 xG.
While Wednesday’s UCL action does look set to serve up several very high-scoring games, this may not be one of them. Including the qualifying rounds, only one of Benfica’s 11 European matches this term has produced more than three goals. Given that, backing there to be under 3.5 goals looks appealing, with an implied probability of 60.6%.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66 on Bet9ja
Game to open up after the break
The permutations at play suggest Benfica will need to take risks at some stage. However, both coaches may adopt a cautious approach during the first hour. It should become clearer what result each side requires as the night wears on.
Those dynamics point to the second half being more open. Benfica may end up needing to win by more than one. That really would open the contest up and potentially leave Mbappe and Vinicius Junior with plenty of space to exploit.
Real Madrid’s four matches so far under Arbeloa have all produced more goals in the second half than the first. Their games under the former full-back have averaged exactly three goals after the break. Two of those fixtures were deadlocked at 0-0 at the interval.
Given those trends, backing the second half to produce the highest number of goals looks promising.
- Benfica vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 1.96 on Bet9ja