The Stats That Suggest Winless Crystal Palace will Soon Turn the Tide

currently sitting in the relegation zone with just three points from seven matches.

This surprising position hasn’t been seen at Selhurst Park since March 2018.

Despite the rocky start, there is optimism within the club for a turnaround, especially with upcoming fixtures against Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur.

Palace’s confidence is buoyed by their strong finish last season, where they clinched six wins from their final seven games, matching their highest-ever points tally of 49 and equalling their best 10th-place finish under Oliver Glasner.

This performance also marked their highest-ever season goal tally with 57, suggesting a return to form is well within reach.

Players’ departure and a new system

Odds courtesy of Betano. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

The statistics clearly highlight Crystal Palace's struggles.

They hold the league's lowest tally for open-play goals—a solitary one—despite accumulating a respectable xG (expected goals) of 9.44.

Palace rank tenth in the league with 92 shots on goal, but their attack has largely relied on long-range efforts (37, the fourth-highest in the Premier League) and set pieces, the latter accounting for two out of their five goals. Defensively, aerial duels have been a significant pain point.

Losing 137 aerial contests—the most in England’s top flight—highlights a weakness against cross-heavy teams. Moreover, Palace's susceptibility to through balls has been frequently exploited, with opponents threading 18 such passes through their backline, ranking them fourth in this metric behind Brighton, West Ham, and Ipswich Town.

The departures of Michael Olise to Bayern Munich and Joachim Andersen to Fulham significantly altered the squad's dynamic. Their losses meant Glasner not only had to implement a new 3-4-3 formation, but also fill the void left by these pivotal players.

While the club acted quickly in the transfer window by bringing in Maxence Lacroix from Wolfsburg and Trevoh Chalobah on loan from Chelsea, defensive resilience takes time to forge.

However, it’s in the wing-back positions, critical in Glasner’s system, that Palace are lacking alternatives, with only Daniel Muñoz and Tyrick Mitchell capable of fulfilling these demanding roles.

This shortage became painfully obvious when Muñoz suffered an injury early against Liverpool, thrusting Nathaniel Clyne into unfamiliar territory.

Mateta’s return could be the spark

However, these statistics reveal room for improvement.

As adjustments are made and new players integrate into the system, these defensive issues could gradually resolve.

Glasner's history of taking time to apply his methods gives hope that improvement is coming.

He did not win any of his first six games in charge of Crystal Palace last season. Similarly, during his first season with Eintracht Frankfurt in the 2021-2022 campaign, the team was close to the relegation zone in November, managing to win only one league game during the early months—against Bayern Munich at the Allianz Arena.

For the first time in 21 years, they accomplished it after 16 matches.

Between November and December, Frankfurt won six out of seven, ultimately sitting sixth at the end of the first round of matches.

Eberechi Eze shoulders the creative responsibility following Michael Olise's departure to Bayern Munich and remains a shining light.

Despite early challenges, Eze's ability to generate shots—27 attempts (3.9 per game) ranking him third in the league—is a testament to his offensive quality.

Despite underperforming his expected goals (xG) tally, the numbers suggest an upward trajectory, especially considering Jean-Philippe Mateta's expected return to full fitness following an overstretched post-Olympics season.

Positive news regarding Cheick Doucouré's return post-international break could further stabilise the side.

Glasner's openness to tactical flexibility may lead to adjustments in formations that capitalise on players’ strengths.

The option of shifting to a back four or incorporating Ismaïla Sarr's pace could introduce much-needed dynamism ahead of Monday’s game away at Nottingham Forest.

In terms of xPTS (expected points), Palace trail Forest by less than two points, presenting a good opportunity to back the team from South London.

Forest are winless in seven games at the City Ground in all competitions, and their defensive metrics—recording the fewest high turnovers and their high PPDA (passes per defensive action)—indicate a side that may struggle with pressure. Palace haven’t beaten the team from the Midlands since 1991 (six draws, four defeats), but could pose a threat with quick transitions.