The former Brighton boss arrives with a sterling reputation and has flown out the gates. He has been able to reinvest all of the money raised from player sales on new talent. Mason Greenwood has hit the ground running in forward areas but will it be enough to mount a title challenge?
Les Olympiens finished 8th in Ligue 1 last season and missed out on Europe entirely. The step to becoming title challengers in De Zerbi’s first season may be too much to ask but Marseille certainly look set to provide entertainment.
- Brighton’s Premier League matches under Roberto De Zerbi saw an average of 3.18 goals.
- Marseille carved open Ligue 1’s third-best defence from last season in their opening game.
- Only PSG have accumulated a higher xG than Marseille after two games.
De Zerbi’s Style Ensures Entertainment
Roberto De Zerbi has a clear style of play. He likes his teams to focus on shorter passes in deeper areas to bait the opposition into pressing further up the pitch. They then aim to play through the press and take advantage of the vacant space in behind.
De Zerbi teams press aggressively and see plenty of the ball. During his time in the Premier League, Brighton averaged 60.33% possession, only Liverpool and Manchester City had more.
That high-risk, high-reward style saw the Seagulls’ matches average 3.18 goals per game. De Zerbi’s team netted 1.67 of those goals and conceded 1.51.
It may take some time for De Zerbi to implement the final form of his football in France but there are some encouraging signs. Mason Greenwood has scored three goals in the team’s opening Ligue 1 matches and looks set for a standout season.
Underlying Data Points to a Glut of Goals
Marseille matches in Ligue 1 in the last campaign saw an average of 2.71 goals but we can expect to see plenty more this term. Their two matches so far have seen an average of 5.0 goals.
In De Zerbi’s first competitive match, Marseille put Brest to the sword in a 5-1 victory. Eric Roy’s side finished second in the top tier of French football last season and had the 3rd best defence. They conceded just 0.9 goals per home game in the last campaign but were carved open by Les Olympiens.
De Zerbi’s team ended the game with an xG of 2.38, a tally only bested by PSG on the opening weekend of the season. Although Marseille were electric going forward, they did afford their opponents plenty of opportunities. Brest finished the game with an xG of 1.32 and were credited with creating two big chances.
Marseille later conceded twice in their first home game of the season as the score finished 2-2. De Zerbi’s team ended that clash with an xG of 3.17 - 2.29 more than Reims. Despite the convincing display, they were unable to secure a win.
The bookmakers haven’t caught up with this trend. Despite these underlying metrics for a team stacked with quality and a cavalier manager, the odds for high-scoring Marseille games are still pretty low. On Betway, you can get odds of 1.80 for over 2.5 goals to be scored in their upcoming fixture with Toulouse. Over 3.5 is as high as 3.00 for those who want to go further.
Odds courtesy of Betano. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.