Our betting expert expects a close encounter, with the hosts edging Mali to secure three points and take a step closer to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Best bets for Ghana vs Mali
- Overs/unders - over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23 on 1xBet
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.92 on 1xBet
- 1x2 - Ghana at odds of 2.14 on 1xBet
Ghana should win 2-1 against Mali.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Ghana missed out on an opportunity to go five points clear at the top of Group I after conceding an equaliser in the 89th minute against Chad last Thursday. As a result, only three points separate them from the chasing pack.
Otto Addo’s men are in good form, however, and have lost only one of their last five international friendlies against Nigeria. After suffering defeat away to the Comoros earlier on in the campaign, they’re now on a five-game unbeaten run in this competition.
Mali, meanwhile, will take encouragement from the Black Stars’ draw last week after they hammered the Comoros 3-0 on home soil. A combination of those results means that the Eagles are within four points of Monday’s hosts, which means victory would make things interesting.
Since only the nation that finishes top of the group automatically qualifies for next year’s World Cup, both these sides will want maximum points to help that cause.
Finishing among the four best second-placed teams across CAF qualifying can earn them a spot in a playoff to decide who represents Africa in the inter-confederation playoffs. Mali remain in contention, sitting just one point behind Madagascar in second.
Probable lineups for Ghana vs Mali
Ghana expected lineup: Asare; Yirenkyi, Adjetey, Opoku, Mensah; Partey, Owusu; Williams, Kudus, Semenyo; Ayew
Mali expected lineup: Diarra; Diakite, Nene, Niakate, Dante; Sangare, Coulibaly, Dieng, Fofana; Sangare, Doumbia
Tense with a chance of goals
These two countries are part of the top three most prolific in their group, with the hosts netting 16 and the visitors 11. Five of Ghana’s last six outings saw the game produce more than two goals, while four of their seven in this competition ended with more than two strikes.
Two of Mali’s last four games in all competitions were loaded with goals, as both resulted in over two goals being scored. The Eagles also had four of their seven qualifiers go over two goals on the day, which indicates we could have a game with a few goals.
Interestingly, Mali haven’t conceded on the road in this campaign - something that Otto Addo must change if they’re to secure the points. The last two meetings between these nations produced three goals in each game, which is likely to be the scenario at the Accra Sports Stadium on Monday night.
- Ghana vs Mali Betting Tip: Overs/unders - over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.23 on 1xBet
Head-to-head record shows something worth backing
With both sides fancying themselves in the final third, there’s a realistic chance we’ll see goals at both ends. Half of the hosts’ games in this competition saw both teams score. Their 1-1 draw in the last outing was the third time in their last six matches across all competitions where both sides found the net.
Considering that Tom Saintfiet’s charges have been resolute at the back and are yet to ship a goal on the road in their qualifiers, Ghana have a tough task to break them down. Yet, with Jordan Ayew, Antoine Semenyo, Mohamed Kudus, and Inaki Williams in attack, the hosts have enough firepower to register a goal or two.
Interestingly, Addo’s men haven’t blanked since that defeat to the Comoros, so they’ll want to continue that run. The head-to-head record suggests they will, as both teams have scored and conceded 12 goals each across their 10 previous meetings.
- Ghana vs Mali Betting Tip 2: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.92 on 1xBet
Close match-up just edged by home advantage
Ghana have yet to be beaten at home in their World Cup Qualifier campaign. What makes this fixture interesting is that Mali own an unbeaten record of their own away from home in this competition. This indicates the hosts will have to work hard to secure a win.
However, history suggests that the Black Stars may just edge this one. Of the 10 clashes they’ve had before, Ghana won five, while Mali claimed three wins. It’s hard to separate the two sides when looking at form and past results.
However, home advantage pushes this one towards the hosts. They have won three of the six home head-to-heads, with only one loss, which was back in 2012. It will be an extremely close match-up, but the Accra crowd may just get their team over the line.
- Ghana vs Mali Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - Ghana at odds of 2.14 on 1xBet