Atletico Madrid vs Girona Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Atletico Madrid vs Girona
Atletico Madrid to win with odds of @ 1.61 on BetKing, equating to a 60.6% implied probability.
Alexander Sorloth to score anytime & Over 1.5 goals with odds of @ 1.96 on BetKing, equating to a 52.6% implied probability.
Both teams to score with odds of @ 1.62 on BetKing, equating to a 58.8% implied probability.
Atletico Madrid should beat Girona by a score of 2-1.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
The Metropolitano hosts Atletico Madrid and Girona on Sunday night in what promises to be one of the most exciting fixtures in the opening weeks of this La Liga campaign.
After finally moving on from Joao Felix during the week, Atletico will be aiming to record their first win of the campaign. Diego Simeone’s team added the irrepressible energy of Conor Gallagher on Wednesday, and we could see the former Chelsea man feature against Girona.
A 2-2 draw away to Villarreal was a bit of a disappointment for Atleti, but it was far from a nightmare result. Simeone brought the summer acquisition Julian Alvarez off the bench – the Argentinian is likely to start here.
Following a remarkable season to finish third in 2023-24, expectations are high for Girona in 2024-25. Selling Artem Dovbyk and Aleix Garcia unquestionably weakens them, but a 1-1 draw with Real Betis on the opening weekend at least suggests they can remain competitive. They had 61% possession and 13 shots at Benito Villamarin.
This is obviously a major challenge for Girona. It is going to be a season of daunting fixtures, given they will soon be juggling the Champions League with their domestic commitments. We expect them to be competitive here, but it’s hard to see them leaving the capital with all three points.
Probable Lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Girona
Atletico Madrid probable XI:
Oblak; Azpilicueta, Gimenez, Le Normand; Llorente, Barrios, Koke, Reinildo; Griezmann, Alvarez; Sorloth.
Girona probable XI:
Gazzaniga; Martinez, Lopez, Blind, Gutierrez; Herrera, Romeu, Martin; Gil, Ruiz, Portu.
Backing the Hosts For Three Points
Girona might have finished ahead of Atletico last season, but the hosts are rightly favoured for this matchup. Even though they both drew on the opening weekend of the season, it’s clear Atletico are the more talented team in 2024-25.
Yes, that was the case in 2023-24, too, but Atleti have got stronger over the summer, while Girona have lost their key players, including their top scorer Artem Dovbyk. The additions of Julian Alvarez, Robin Le Normand, and Conor Gallagher should really elevate Atletico this season.
Just five points separated these teams last term. Atletico’s +0.6 expected goal difference per 90 was 0.17 ahead of Girona’s mark – Girona were closer to fifth in that category than third.
We are taking Atletico to win this match. The price might seem short, but the 60.6% implied probability still indicates value.
Atletico Madrid vs Girona Bet 1: Atletico Madrid to win @ 1.61 on BetKing
Sorloth Goes Two in Two
Alexander Sorloth got his Atletico career off to a flying start with a goal against Villarreal last weekend. Dovbyk was the only La Liga player to better Sorloth’s goal-scoring tally in 2023-24 – he’s poised for a big year in the red and white of Atleti.
Dating to the end of last season, Sorloth has now scored in seven of his last 11 matches for club and country. His underlying metrics might suggest this is an unsustainable hot streak, but we are happy to ride with the Norwegian while he’s priced at 1.90 to score anytime.
Girona conceded 19 shots to Real Betis last week. Sorloth’s 2.3 shots per game in 2023-24 were among the league leaders. He doesn’t need many chances to find the net – we love this value.
Atletico Madrid vs Girona Bet 2: Alexander Sorloth Anytime Scorer & Over 1.5 goals @ 1.96 on BetKing
Both Teams Find The Net In Capital
Both teams to score cashed in Atleti and Girona’s matches over the opening weekend. Both teams scored in 55% of Girona’s La Liga matches in 2023-24, including in the two fixtures against Atletico.
These teams combined for 11 goals over their two league matchups. We are not sufficiently confident to back another high-scoring match like we witnessed last season, so both teams to score is the pick of the options in the goal markets even at a price of 1.70.
Atletico’s defence is not as impenetrable as their reputation might suggest. Only six teams conceded more expected goals than Girona last season, and only Barcelona generated more expected goals in attack.
Atletico Madrid vs Girona Bet 3: Both Teams to Score @ 1.62 on BetKing