Despite losing Kylian Mbappe and not making any significant additions to the first team, Ligue 1 odds still price PSG as the heavy favourites for the title. Could Les Parisiens miss out on the title for just the third time since 2012?
- Kylian Mbappé was the only PSG player with more than 11 Ligue 1 goals in 2023-24.
- PSG are set to miss out on Victor Osimhen, with a Chelsea transfer seeming inevitable.
- Fabian Ruiz and Manuel Ugarte combined to play over 3,000 Ligue 1 minutes last season.
Significantly Weakened PSG Squad
PSG are usually making headlines for their acquisitions in the transfer window. This summer has been very different. Kylian Mbappé has departed for Real Madrid, Hugo Ekitike was sold to Eintracht Frankfurt, and the midfield duo of Fabian Ruiz and Manuel Ugarte have been heavily linked with moves to the Premier League.
Goalkeeper Matfey Safonov has been PSG’s only significant signing as a backup to Gianluigi Donnarumma after Keylor Navas and Sergio Rico saw their contracts expire.
There is no denying PSG are markedly weaker than they were last season. Mbappé’s departure alone is a massive setback – he had nine more goal involvements than any other Ligue 1 player last season and 22 more than any PSG player. Ruiz only made 14 league starts last season, but he shone for Spain in the Euros and could have provided some chance creation and goals from midfield. Ugarte’s defensive metrics are exceptional.
It’s a rebuilding period in the French capital. Warren Zaïre-Emery is going to be a regular and he’s just turned 18. Bradley Barcola, Gonçalo Ramos, and Lee Kang-in are all under 24 years old. Is it justified for a team undergoing such a clear rebuild to have odds of 1.29 to win the title?
Longshot Betting Value For Ligue 1 Title
As much as PSG have dominated French football for the last decade or so, that has predominantly been down to proven stars. This team still has some of that, but losing Ruiz and Ugarte would be a real blow. Victor Osimhen, long seen as the player to replace some of Mbappé’s production, seems destined for Chelsea.
A João Neves signing is nearing for the defending champions, which will at least soften the pain of selling Ruiz or Ugarte. Links to Jadon Sancho and Luis Diaz are yet to go any further than that.
Monaco, Marseille, and Lyon have all been far more active in the transfer market than PSG. Marseille and Nice both underachieved their expected metrics last season and should be far more competitive in 2024-25. Considering they don’t face the pressures of European football, Marseille stand out as the top contenders here at 15.00.
PSG still have the best squad in the league and warrant being favoured, but their price is simply far too short with what we’ve seen so far in this transfer window.