Betting on Relegation: Why Premier League’s Newly Promoted Sides Are Destined to go down

find themselves in the turbulent waters that have historically claimed many before them.

With only one victory shared among these clubs after seven match days — a lone triumph by Leicester City against Bournemouth — the challenge of survival in the English top flight has never seemed more difficult.

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The gap is widening

The question looming is whether the Premier League represents the toughest challenge for new arrivals among Europe’s top five leagues.

Taking a broader view, promoted teams Parma, Como, and Venezia have performed significantly better in Serie A, gathering a total of 18 points between them.

French Ligue 1’s Auxerre, Angers, and Saint-Etienne have collectively secured 16 points, while La Liga newcomers Leganés, Valladolid, and Espanyol boast 23 points combined, albeit from nine match days.

By comparison, with an average of 0.52 points per game, Ipswich, Leicester City, and Southampton have been well below the level of their continental counterparts. The exception is the Bundesliga’s newest entrants, St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel, who have amassed just six points collectively (average 0.50 points per game) after 12 fixtures.

Last season's collective performance by the newly-promoted EPL teams, Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton Town, though producing one fewer win by matchday seven, still concluded with fewer points (nine), highlighting the intense struggle newcomers face to avoid immediate relegation.

Looking at the past, newly-promoted teams have been relegated en masse only twice in Premier League history, during the 1997/98 and 2023/24 seasons.

This rare occurrence lays the growing gap in quality between the Premier League and the Championship, from which these clubs clawed their way up.

Ipswich Town: A Season of Two Tales

Currently winless in their opening seven games (D4, L3), Ipswich Town’s return to England’s top flight bears the bruises of their historic 1969/70 campaign, where a similar winless run was recorded.

Yet, amidst these storm clouds rises Liam Delap, a £20m acquisition from Manchester City, who is proving to be a crucial lifeline. Delap’s four goals this season have been instrumental, with his prowess demonstrated most effectively during Ipswich’s spirited 2-2 draw against Aston Villa — a match that Unai Emery’s men used as a springboard to surprise Bayern Munich days later.

However, Ipswich’s attacking, possession-based style, under manager Kieran McKenna, while visually engaging, has often exposed their fragility at the back, leading to costly errors and goals conceded.

With the worst expected goals (xG) performance in the league of just 0.96 per game, the pressure on Delap to consistently deliver appears immense.

Leicester City: The Winds of Change?

For the Foxes, fortune smiled briefly with their 1-0 victory over Bournemouth, ending a winless drought.

The King Power Stadium celebrated with obvious relief. Nonetheless, luck may have favoured them in that match, as Bournemouth arguably deserved a draw or more based on the volume of chances they fashioned.

Despite a promising clean sheet, defensive solidity remains a concern. Leicester's expected goals against (xGA) statistic is the highest in the league at 1.91 per game, portraying a defence consistently living on borrowed time.

Additionally, away games have proven disastrous, with a staggering xGA of 2.46, the league’s most damning statistic in such scenarios.

Southampton: Stick or Twist?

Southampton's challenge extends beyond mere statistics, delving into psychological realms.

Winless in their last 20 Premier League games — matching their longest barren spell from 1969 — the threat of relegation is looming.

Saints’ tendency to relinquish possession in defensive areas has been a liability, with six errors leading to direct goals thus far.

Russell Martin's side has earned only a solitary point from seven outings, casting them adrift at the table's lower echelon.

Despite an encouraging first half against Arsenal and a lead through Cameron Archer, individual errors proved costly once again, highlighted by Flynn Downes' mishandling that permanently turned the tide of the game.

This incident underpins a larger issue for Southampton — the need to strengthen decision-making and resilience under pressure, particularly in critical phases of play.