Betting on Away Wins: Has Home Advantage Waned in the Premier League?

It is the first season ever that there are six winless teams in the topflight at this stage.

Perhaps there are more subpar Premier League teams. Maybe this is a sign home advantage is a smaller factor than it once was in the era of VAR and luxurious travel. 

1. 10 Premier League teams are yet to win at home this season.
2. This is the first season ever with six winless teams overall through five matches.
3. Only six out of the last 20 Premier League matches have ended in a home win.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Hometown Struggles

Four Premier League teams won at home last weekend, which doesn’t sound particularly extraordinary. Three of those teams finished in the top six last season, though, and were heavily favoured to take all three points. In the previous round of fixtures, there was a solitary home victory.

Four sides have played three home matches without a win. Another six have failed to win in their first two at home. The newly promoted teams have a combined three points from eight home fixtures (two of those came from Southampton and Ipswich’s draw on Saturday). 

Throughout the Premier League era, home teams have generally won between 42% and 50% of their matches. Only 34% of matches have been won by the home team thus far in 2024-25. 

Yes, these are still small samples, and that percentage can quickly change with a raft of home wins this weekend. Three teams are odds-on to win away from home this weekend, however, with Arsenal, Chelsea, and Bournemouth the only overwhelming home favourites. The latter two teams are yet to win at home this term.

It’s worth noting that only six teams have a negative expected goal difference at home. These are very small samples, of course, and early-season schedules are obviously a major factor in these underlying numbers when we are dealing with two or three fixtures. 

Bournemouth, for instance, have a +1.6 expected goal difference across two home matches, but have just one point to show for it. Chelsea have a +2 expected goal difference over two fixtures at Stamford Bridge and a single point to their name from those fixtures.

Away Win Betting Opportunities

Chelsea have won away at Bournemouth and West Ham since drawing with Crystal Palace, which contributes to their 1.72 price to beat Brighton. The visitors have a positive expected goal difference across two away matches, however, and got a result at the Emirates last time they went on the road. It doesn’t take much to talk yourself into backing a Brighton win at 4.00. 

Elsewhere, the trend of struggling home teams might push bettors towards some away wins. Crystal Palace are a mid-table team by their expected goals metrics. They finished last season in fine form, and have drawn their last three, including good results against Chelsea and Manchester United. Facing an Everton team which lost 3-0 at home to Brighton and blew a two-goal lead to lose 3-2 to Bournemouth, we see value in backing the Eagles for their first win of the season at 2.50. 

Ipswich are considered underdogs hosting Aston Villa at Portman Road. Their -2.6 expected goal difference across two home matches reflects their struggles in the loss to Liverpool and draw with Fulham. Villa have won both of their away matches with a positive expected goal difference. Coming off impressive performances against Young Boys and Wolves, we like the 1.83 price on a Villa win. 

Similarly, Tottenham’s 3-1 win over Brentford makes the 1.65 on Spurs to avoid defeat at Old Trafford seem pretty appealing. Alternatively, you can get 2.75 on Ange Postecoglou’s team to win. Manchester United won 1-0 at home on the opening weekend, but followed that with a 3-0 defeat to Liverpool at Old Trafford. Fatigue will be a factor for both teams due to their Europa League commitments.