October’s international break sees teams take on their next couple of Nations League fixtures. It would be foolish to ignore the patterns from last month’s matches when evaluating Nations League betting markets this week.
| Nations League Fixture | Both Teams To Score – No |
|---|---|
England vs Greece | |
Finland vs Ireland | |
Italy vs Belgium | |
Hungary vs Netherlands | |
Slovakia vs Sweden | 2.17 |
Serbia vs Switzerland | |
Poland vs Portugal | |
Spain vs Denmark |
Odds courtesy of BetWinner Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Statistical Trends on Matchdays One and Two
Croatia, Switzerland, Finland, Hungary, Ireland, and Serbia combined for two goals in the last international break. There were 20 teams who conceded one or no goals. Of the 26 matchday two fixtures, only nine saw both teams find the net. Exactly half of those matches produced under 2.5 goals.
Along with both teams scoring being a rare occurrence, it’s also noticeable how many heavy victories there were. Taking ‘no’ on BTTS would have been very profitable over the first two matchdays, but a healthy portion of fixtures were still hitting the over. Only 27 of the 52 matches went under 2.5 total goals.
Of the 52 fixtures, 17 matches saw one team score three or more goals. When teams were in the ascendancy, they often took full advantage. Perhaps this will point bettors towards betting favourites on the handicap, but for us, it leads to being wary of taking the under while liking the look of both teams to score – no.
Betting Options For BTTS – No
Looking ahead to matchdays three and four, the steelier defensive teams are obviously a good option when it comes to BTTS – no. England registering a win to nil over Greece feels like a very safe bet. Elsewhere, the goal-shy duo of Finland and Ireland are unlikely to treat us to a high-scoring thriller in Helsinki.
Across a combined 360 minutes of football, Serbia and Switzerland mustered a single goal. Both teams have scored just twice in Serbia’s last nine matches, with three clean sheets in their last six outings. The odds on BTTS – no when these teams meet later this week represent superb value.
A draw would be a satisfactory result for both Italy and Belgium. Belgium’s attack is missing Kevin De Bruyne and has been ineffective over the last 12 months. One goal either way could be enough to decide this one.
While Hungary conceded five to Germany and the Netherlands were involved in two high-scoring matches, the Hungarians failing to score in both fixtures at least provokes some interest in this market. The Netherlands winning to nil is hardly far-fetched. Likewise, Denmark are overmatched against European champions Spain. A routine win for La Roja in Murcia seems inevitable. Spain winning 2-0 seems the most likely outcome.