Bettors' underlying metrics and signings suggest there is value, however.
- Nice had the third-best expected goal difference in Ligue 1 last season.
- They have money to spend after selling Khephren Thuram to Juventus.
- Jonathan Clauss, Morgan Sanson, and Tanguy Ndombele have already been signed.
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Expected Goals Suggest Misfortune Last Season
Only Marseille and PSG have a bigger Ligue 1 net spend than Nice over the last five years. Selling Khephren Thuram inevitably weakens Nice in the short-term, but the club has shown a willingness to spend. The same will be true if they end up selling Jean-Clair Todibo.
Tanguy Ndombele is a buy-low option on a free transfer. His career hasn’t panned out as expected, but could he be revitalised on a return to Ligue 1? Jonathan Clauss is experienced and coming off a very good season with Marseille. Keeping Morgan Sanson permanently adds further experience to a young, talented squad.
Nice were third in expected goal difference last season and just 0.1 expected goals away from having the league’s best defence. Their attack underperformed their expected goals by 9.9 - indicating that while the team was effective offensively, they were also wasteful and suffered from some bad luck. To put it simply, they were a better team overall than their points tally and fifth-place suggested.
Young forwards Terem Moffi and Evann Guessand are likely to improve with more minutes. The pair were already in the top 13 among Ligue 1 players in expected goals per 90 minutes last season.
Weakened Rivals In Ligue 1
Where Nice are trending in the right direction, Monaco have lost Wissam Ben Yedder, Marseille waved goodbye to Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Lille are likely to sell Jonathan David. Three of Nice’s direct rivals need to replace their top scorers. All three have lost other key players, too.
Brest, who finished third last season, have the challenge of juggling Champions League football. They are unlikely to replicate their 2023-24 effort, given how significantly they overachieved their expected goals.
The Europa League will stretch Nice’s squad, but they will have more flexibility to rotate compared to Lille, Monaco, and Brest in the Champions League. PSG, Marseille, and Monaco are odds-on for a top-four finish at the time of writing – we find it hard to see why Nice are priced at 3.50 behind Lille and Lyon, and tied with Lens.
Even if Todibo follows Thuram out the door, Nice have proven they can recruit wisely and are willing to spend money. This squad already has plenty of talent, as they exhibited last season. We think they are great value at this price.