Our betting expert expects Leeds to put up a fight against Villa but to eventually miss out on three points.
Best bets for Leeds vs Aston Villa
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.86 on Betway
- First goal - Leeds at odds of 2.15 on Betway
- 1x2 - Aston Villa at odds of 2.44 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Aston Villa
- Goalscorers prediction: Leeds: Lukas Nmecha, Aston Villa: Emiliano Buendía x2
Like their fellow newcomers from the Championship, Leeds made a positive start to life in the Premier League. They went unbeaten at Elland Road for their first three matches in this competition. The Peacocks beat Everton and drew with Newcastle and Bournemouth.
However, their form has taken a dip in recent gameweeks. The Whites have won just one game in their last five, and that has worried Daniel Farke. Leeds sit a point ahead of the relegation zone before Sunday’s battle with Villa.
With West Ham and Wolves recently appointing new managers, a change in fortunes is on the cards for those clubs. This means the hosts could be drawn into the relegation scrap, highlighting the need to secure maximum points at home.
It’s been a different story at Aston Villa. Unai Emery’s men started the campaign poorly but have gradually improved. They’re now sixth in the league, only four points off Manchester City in second, a team they have already beaten this season.
Two wins in a row, including one in the Europa League, has probably increased the visitors’ confidence. Another three points here is what they need to keep their hopes of a top-four finish alive.
Probable lineups for Leeds vs Aston Villa
Leeds expected lineup: Perri, Bogle, Rodon, Bijol, Gudmundsson, Ampadu, Aaronson, Longstaff, Stach, Okafor, Nmecha
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Cash, Konsa, Torres, Digne, Kamara, Onana, McGinn, Rogers, Buendia, Watkins
Defensive gaps to favour Villa
The last eight league matches have seen Leeds improve on the goals front. They’ve scored 24.2% more in that run than their goal average for the entire season. They’ve scored six goals in five games at Elland Road and allowed the opposition at least one goal per game.
Both teams found the back of the net in 60% of their games at home. That should encourage the visitors who’ve struggled in front of goal. Villa have only scored three goals in their five away dates, averaging 0.60 goals per match.
They’re also susceptible to conceding at least once, as they’ve done in their last three away league games in a row. The Villains have yet to win to nil on the road. They have only kept clean sheets in 20% of their fixtures away from their home base.
- Leeds vs Aston Villa Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.86 on Betway
Leeds could strike first
Playing at home is a huge advantage for Leeds. They’ve only lost one of their previous five at Elland Road, which proves they’re difficult to play against on their patch. Farke’s men have never lost to nil in their home league matches.
This reflects their determination, backed by the home crowd. Away from home, they’ve allowed the opposition to open the scoring 83% of the time. However, in their backyard, Leeds have struck first in 40% of their fixtures.
Meanwhile, when Villa are on their travels, they tend to start slowly. The visitors allowed their hosts to score first in 60% of their away games this season. Three of the five away goals they’ve conceded arrived before the half-time whistle.
This underlines Leeds’ ability to strike early. A staggering 80% of the hosts’ goals this term went in just before the break. As a result, the home fans could be in for an exciting start.
- Leeds vs Aston Villa Betting Tip 2: First goal - Leeds at odds of 2.15 on Betway
All signs point to an away win
The odds are stacked against Villa, but they have shown just how good they are in recent weeks. The Villains won three of their last five outings. In the league alone, they lost just one of their previous eight (W5, D2).
The hosts lost four of their last five, and they don’t normally enjoy a particularly great record against this opposition. Their last victory over Villa came over five years ago.
The visitors won three of the last five Premier League head-to-heads. Two of those came at Elland Road. That makes a strong case to back Emery’s men to get the job done on Sunday.
- Leeds vs Aston Villa Betting Tip 3: 1x2 - Aston Villa at odds of 2.44 on Betway