Our betting expert suggests a tight meeting. Mexico’s home advantage could see them progress after a level 90 minutes.
Best bets for Mexico vs England
- First team to score - Mexico at odds of 2.32 on 22Bet
- 1x2 - Draw at odds of 3.27 on 22Bet
- Anytime goalscorer - Raul Jimenez at odds of 3.80 on 22Bet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Mexico 1-1 England
- Goalscorers prediction: Mexico: Raul Jimenez - England: Harry Kane
Mexico have been a constant presence at World Cups, but they’ve always fallen short when it mattered. Their best finishes came when they hosted in 1970 and 1986, as they reached the quarter-finals. One more win here, and they’ll repeat that feat, continuing one of their most consistent tournament records.
No other nation in global football has played more World Cup matches than Mexico’s 64 without lifting the coveted trophy. Playing on home soil gives them the best opportunity to remedy that. If they do, they’ll break a streak of seven consecutive World Cup exits at this stage from 1994 to 2018.
Javier Aguirre’s third spell in charge of the national team has been largely successful. However, getting his team over the line against England at this hurdle will earn him legendary status in Mexico. Yet, England are no easy opponents. They clearly offer a greater challenge than all the teams the co-hosts have faced so far in the competition.
Thomas Tuchel’s men were made to sweat for their place in the last 16 of the World Cup. The Three Lions needed two late goals from Harry Kane to turn their Round of 32 clash with DR Congo around. England haven’t been their fluent best recently. Still, the quality of their squad makes it difficult to write them off.
After being knocked out at the quarter-final stage four years ago, they will be determined to reach that stage again. Their semi-final berth in 2018 was likely their best chance of adding a second star to their badge, but they have another chance here. The winner of this encounter will have a date with either Norway or Brazil, which means this is just the beginning of a long road.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs England
Mexico expected lineup: Rangel, Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Mora, Lira, Romo, Alvarado, Quinonez, Jimenez
England expected lineup: Pickford, James, Konsa, Guehi, O’Reilly, Anderson, Rice, Saka, Bellingham, Gordon, Kane
Early momentum in a charged atmosphere
Aguirre’s tactics haven’t been well-received by the Mexican fans. Frustration was evident before the tournament kicked off. El Tri’s goalless draws with Uruguay and Portugal saw the team booed off by sections of their home support. However, the atmosphere has shifted since then, and Mexico have repaid them with positive starts.
In two of the four World Cup fixtures they’ve played so far, the co-hosts have taken the lead. It took them just nine minutes to find the back of the net against South Africa. They scored after 22 minutes against Ecuador. With clean sheets in every game, they were technically first to score in each of their World Cup matches.
England should be wary of the Mexicans starting quickly, fuelled by a raucous atmosphere at the Azteca. The Three Lions’ defence haven’t been completely settled, as they’ve shipped three goals in four games. DR Congo’s seventh-minute goal in the Round of 32 underlines Mexico’s threat to strike first in this last-16 clash.
- Mexico vs England Betting Tip 1: First team to score - Mexico at odds of 2.32 on 22Bet
Stalemate potential on Monday
The odds on either side winning this game inside 90 minutes are quite close. England are only slight favourites. With England ranked 10 places higher in the world rankings, the odds are understandable.
However, Mexico’s home advantage cannot be overlooked, with strong support to push them throughout the match. The fact that they’ve won each of their last four matches to nil will also give them a massive boost. Aguirre loves playing with a tight defence and forwards, allowing his wing-backs to attack.
The Three Lions will find it difficult to break down the home side, much like they did against DR Congo. Moments of brilliance, such as those from Kane, can still make the difference. However, England’s recent goalless draw with Ghana suggests they haven’t found their winning formula yet.
Mexico haven’t beaten England across the last four head-to-heads. Their only World Cup meeting ended in defeat back in 1966. With both sides enjoying unbeaten runs recently, there is a high chance they could cancel each other out in regulation time.
- Mexico vs England Betting Tip 2: 1x2 - Draw at odds of 3.27 on 22Bet
A familiar foe to step forward
Harry Kane showed why he is England’s talisman last time out. His cracking finish pushed the Three Lions through to this stage of the competition. With five goals to his name, Kane is just one away from Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi in the race for the Golden Boot.
However, value may lie on the Mexican side. Julian Quinones leads the charts for the co-hosts with three goals. After striking the opening goal of the tournament, he is a strong contender. Veteran forward Raul Jimenez also stands out.
The Wolves forward spent a large portion of his career playing against players in England. He’s scored more goals against Jordan Pickford than any other goalkeeper in the Premier League. Jimenez smashed six goals in eight years against the Everton shot-stopper, which means he knows what it takes to beat the England number one.
- Mexico vs England Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Raul Jimenez at odds of 3.80 on 22Bet