We’re backing the co-hosts in Mexico City, with El Tri advancing to the Round of 16.
Best bets for Mexico vs Ecuador
- Mexico to win at odds of 2.23 on 22Bet
- Both teams to score - no - and under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 on 22Bet
- Raul Jimenez to score or assist at odds of 2.15 on 22Bet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Score prediction - Mexico 1-0 Ecuador
Goalscorers Prediction - Mexico: Raul Jimenez
Mexico are in great form as they head into the knockout stages of a World Cup for the 10th time. The co-hosts won all three of their Group A games to reach this point, and are yet to concede a single goal. Javier Aguirre is likely thrilled with how things are going so far.
Meanwhile, Ecuador’s form has been inconsistent. La Tricolor won one, drew one and lost one to secure a Round of 32 spot. However, it’s worth noting that they defeated Germany. Sebastián Beccacece’s team cannot be defeated easily.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Ecuador
Mexico expected lineup: Rangel, Sanchez, Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Lira, Romo, Gutierrez, Alvarado, Jimenez, Quinones
Ecuador expected lineup: Galindez, Franco, Ordonez, Pacho, Hincapie, Yeboah, Caicedo, Vite, Angulo, Plata, Valencia
The Mexicans continue to impress
Mexico seemed to be in great shape in the build-up to this summer’s World Cup, and couldn’t really have had a better start. Three wins in a row, and six goals without reply, will have them full of confidence heading into the Round of 32. With home advantage as well, their favourite status is unsurprising.
El Tri also don’t have any injury or suspension issues, meaning Javier Aguirre can select who he wants. Raul Jimenez is likely to be one of them after being rested against Czechia. Ecuador are in a similar situation in terms of selection, with Sebastian Beccacece having a full complement to choose from.
We expect a very tight affair in Mexico City as these two meet, with the Mexicans to ultimately emerge victorious. Although we’re anticipating a home win, it wouldn’t be a surprise for this match to go into extra time either.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Bet 1: Mexico to win at odds of 2.23 on 22Bet
A game of few goals
There’s good reason to expect a low-scoring affair here. Both teams saw their final group game end with over 2.5 goals, but their other four games finished under 2.5. The Mexicans have had eight games under 2.5 in 2026, while the same applies for 13 from Ecuador’s last 17 matches.
Both sides have proven difficult to beat and appear very solid defensively. For that reason, we don’t expect plenty of goals at the Azteca this week. Aguirre and Beccacece have done a brilliant job with their team organisation, and this could be a tight encounter.
This is the type of match that is usually decided by one goal. With the home crowd behind them, we’re backing the men in green to be the ones to score.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Bet 2: Both teams to score - no - and under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.53 on 22Bet
Jimenez eager to reach a milestone
Having just celebrated his 35th birthday, the 2026 World Cup will likely be Raul Jimenez’s last. The Wolverhampton Wanderers forward has recorded 46 goals across 128 games for his country, and he will be eager to score his 50th. We expect him to take a significant step closer to achieving that milestone against Ecuador.
Jimenez was rested against the Czechs, sitting out that one entirely as Mexico ran out as 3-0 winners. Consequently, he will be fresh as he leads the attack in the capital. The Ecuadorian defence will be fully aware of the significant threat he provides.
The former Fulham man is seen as the bookies’ favourite to find the net in this match, and we agree. While other players could find the net, ‘El Lobo Mexicano’ is our pick to get in on the action. Whether he is scoring a goal himself or creating an opportunity, Jimenez will be eager to prove his worth on the international stage once again.
- Mexico vs Ecuador Bet 3: Raul Jimenez to score or assist at odds of 2.15 on 22Bet