Argentina are bidding to become the first nation to retain the World Cup since Brazil back in 1962. Will Algeria derail their hopes in Kansas City?
Best bets for Argentina vs Algeria
- Argentina to win to nil at odds of 2.05 with 22Bet
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88 with 22Bet
- Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.20 with 22Bet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Argentina 2-0 Algeria
- Goalscorers prediction: Argentina: Martinez, Alvarez
The 2022 World Cup winners start their Group J campaign at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium, where they face the Algerians.
Only Italy (1938) and Brazil (1962) have managed to defend their World Cup crowns. This highlights what a tall order it is for the Argentines to prevail in North America this summer. They do, however, arrive in strong form, having won their last five games while scoring 15 goals and conceding just one.
Their most recent warm-up friendlies resulted in comfortable victories over Honduras and Iceland. Legend Lionel Messi will make his 27th appearance at a World Cup finals against Algeria. His minutes have been carefully managed of late due to a minor hamstring scare.
The Desert Foxes of Algeria won’t be easy opponents. The team have only lost three of their last 28 games in all competitions. They topped their qualifying group, scoring 2.4 goals per game and even defeated the Netherlands in a warm-up friendly.
However, the Algerians are aware they have winnable games to come against Jordan and Australia. They are unlikely to take excessive risks in this opening match.
Probable lineups for Argentina vs Algeria
Argentina expected lineup: E. Martinez, Molina, Romero, L. Martinez, Tagliafico, De Paul, Fernandez, Mac Allister, Messi, Lautaro, Alvarez
Algeria expected lineup: Zidane, Abada, Mandi, Belaid, Ait-Nouri, Zerrouki, Bentaleb, Aouar, Mahrez, Gouiri, Amoura
Defending champs to keep the Foxes at arm’s length
With Emi Martinez in goal and Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martinez anchoring the back line, Argentina are a defensive force. Having shipped just one goal in their last five games, it’s hard to see Algeria finding the net.
Algeria’s attacking numbers look impressive on paper. Yet, the 67 goals in 28 matches under Petkovic have been scored largely against African opposition. When they met elite competition at the Africa Cup of Nations, they lost 2-0 to Nigeria.
Star playmaker, Riyad Mahrez, is now 35 and routinely substituted after 60+ minutes. Meanwhile, their transitional threats are weaker than they once were. We’re happy to back an Argentine win and a clean sheet at an odds against price.
- Argentina vs Algeria Bet 1: Argentina to win to nil at odds of 2.05 with 22Bet
Low-scoring affair seems likely
The statistical models suggest there is around a 70% chance of two or fewer goals being scored in this fixture. Argentina’s recent games support this theory. Aside from their thrashing of Zambia, their last four games have yielded only six goals in total.
Algeria’s profile follows a similar script. For all their qualifying goals against lower-ranked African nations, they scored just once in recent friendlies against Uruguay and DR Congo.
Vladimir Petkovic will set up deep and compact in Kansas City, conceding territory to protect the space in behind. The most realistic outcome is a narrow defeat that preserves energy for the rest of the group stage.
- Argentina vs Algeria Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.88 with 22Bet
Value on Lautaro Martinez to find the net
Although Messi attracts most of the attention from the press, Lautaro Martinez is a serious contender to score for Argentina. He scored 17 goals in 30 appearances for Inter’s Serie A-winning season. Also, he has scored 37 goals in 76 appearances for his country at an average of almost a goal every other game.
His relentless movement in the channels makes him the main danger man against an Algerian defence that can struggle with physicality.
We can back Lautaro Martinez to score any time at a probability of just 45.45%. That’s below his 48.68% strike rate for Argentina.
- Argentina vs Algeria Bet 3: Lautaro Martinez anytime goalscorer at odds of 2.20 with 22Bet