Our betting expert expects Los Blancos to secure a low-scoring victory, with Kylian Mbappe yet again to make all the difference.
Best bets for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.10 on 1xBet
- Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 2.05 on 1xBet
- Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.753 on 1xBet
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe x2
It was a miserable Wednesday night in Lisbon for Real Madrid. A 4-2 defeat against Benfica saw them miss out on a top-eight finish in the Champions League.
However, they have won their last five matches in La Liga. That run has seen Los Blancos close the gap to Barcelona in the title race. They’ll be expected to pick up three points when Rayo Vallecano come calling.
The visitors have only won one of their last 11 league games. A lack of firepower has seen Inigo Perez’s side slide towards the relegation battle. They were beaten at home by Osasuna last weekend.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Asencio, Valverde, Tchouameni, Guler, Vinicius, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappe
Rayo Vallecano expected lineup: Batalla, Chavarria, Mendy, Lejeune, Balliu, Ciss, Lopez, Garcia, Palazon, Akhomach, De Frutos
Mbappe to break the deadlock again
The recent coaching change at the Santiago Bernabeu has altered little in terms of the team’s dependence on Kylian Mbappe. The Frenchman continues to be the main source of goals.
Mbappe has scored seven times in four matches since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge. On each of those occasions, the 27-year-old also netted the game’s opening goal. He scored a brace as Real Madrid won 2-0 at Villarreal in La Liga last weekend.
With no match this coming midweek, there’s little chance of major rotation in the home attack. Mbappe will surely start again, and he’s an outstanding candidate to score the first goal.
Nobody in La Liga can match his average of 5.0 shots per game. Mbappe’s strike rate of a goal every 84 minutes is also unrivalled. He is good to score first again, with an implied probability of 38.2%.
- Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Bet 1: Kylian Mbappe to score first at odds of 3.10 on 1xBet
Derby clash to open up after the break
The circumstances leading up to this game are similar to Real Madrid’s last home league outing against Levante. That also came just after a midweek humiliation in a cup competition. Many home players were jeered throughout the 90 minutes, and they may get the same treatment on Sunday.
Los Blancos only really found their rhythm after the break against Levante, scoring the first goal in the 58th minute. They tend to score late goals, with 27% of their strikes coming after the 75th minute in La Liga.
Rayo Vallecano matches also tend to see more action in the second half. 68% of the goals they’ve conceded in the league this term have come after the break. Their 3-1 defeat last time out saw them let in goals in the 91st and 94th minutes.
Those trends point towards this match opening up after the interval. Backing the second half to produce the highest number of goals looks like the smart bet.
- Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Bet 2: Half with most goals - Second half at odds of 2.05 on 1xBet
Low-scoring trend to continue
While Real Madrid’s defence was badly exposed in Europe, that hasn’t been the case of late in La Liga. They’ve only conceded once in their last four outings in the Spanish top flight. Last weekend against Villarreal, Arbeloa’s side allowed only 0.57 xG in a tough away fixture.
It’s hard to imagine Rayo Vallecano showing a great deal of ambition at the Bernabeu. They do normally manage to keep it quite tight at this ground.
They’ve not been beaten by more than one goal on any of their last five trips to play their city rivals. Since a remarkable 10-2 defeat in 2015, all of Rayo’s away fixtures against Real Madrid have produced three or fewer goals.
Backing under 3.5 goals has also been profitable in seven of the home team’s last eight league fixtures. That bet is likely to hit again, with an implied probability of 60.6%.
- Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Bet 3: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.753 on 1xBet