Our betting expert expects Pierre Sage’s Lens to edge PSG by the narrowest of margins in this Ligue 1 top-two battle on the penultimate matchday.
Best bets for Lens vs PSG
- Lens to win or draw at odds of 1.83 on 1xBet
- Over 4.5 total goals at odds of 3.60 on 1xBet
- First-half draw at odds of 2.40 on 1xBet
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Lens 3-2 PSG
- Goalscorers prediction: Lens: Wesley Said, Odsonne Edouard, Rayan Fofana; PSG: Ousmane Dembele, Vitinha
Lens are struggling for consistency as the Ligue 1 season draws to a close. They have won only two of their previous five outings, drawing twice and losing once in the process.
Back-to-back draws with Brest and Nice were followed by a narrow but significant 1-0 victory over bottom-of-the-table Nantes. A strike from 16‑year‑old Mezian Soares moved Lens within three points of PSG, although they have played a game more.
Paris Saint-Germain enter this delayed fixture after a 1-0 victory over mid-table Brest. Desire Doue came off the bench to make a decisive impact, scoring the only goal in the closing minutes.
Ahead of the decider, PSG sit six points clear of Lens. Even a draw would seal their 14th Ligue 1 title at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, where they’ve triumphed in each of their last two league visits.
As the top away outfit this season, PSG have the chance to seal the deal. Yet, Lens are this term’s best performing home side. Expect a tight contest. Home advantage and a more favourable fixture schedule could tip the balance in favour of the Blood and Gold in a nail-biting finish.
Probable lineups for Lens vs PSG
Lens expected lineup: Risser, Sarr, Baidoo, Ganiou, Udol, Haidara, Bulatovic, Sima, Fofana, Edouard, Said
PSG expected lineup: Safonov, Zaire-Emery, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes, Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz, Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia
Home resilience makes Lens double chance appeal
Lens fought hard to win all three points against Nantes. PSG did the same against Brest. Both teams enter this penultimate matchday with everything on the line. Only six points separate them.
The hosts have not drawn any of their 16 home matches this season. They have won 14 and lost two along the way. With only 11 conceded at home, Lens have what it takes to contain the reigning European champions.
PSG fielded a second-string side against Brest. They will be at full strength here. However, they have been vulnerable since their nervy 5-4 victory over Bayern Munich in the Champions League semi-final first leg.
A double chance on Lens to win or draw offers value. The hosts have lost only one of their last 17 competitive home games. PSG are the best away side, but their 3-1 defeat at Rennes in mid-February exposed defensive flaws.
- Lens vs PSG Prediction 1: Lens to win or draw at odds of 1.85 on 1xBet
Goal rush at Bollaert-Delelis
Lens and PSG rank joint-third among 18 Ligue 1 sides in the Over 4.5 total goals market this campaign. Both have been involved in high-scoring encounters throughout the season.
For Lens alone, three of their last five Ligue 1 games have crossed 4.5 total goals. Meanwhile, for PSG, only their Champions League semi-final opening leg against Bayern went over that mark. The Parisians haven’t seen more than 4.5 goals since their 5-0 thrashing of Marseille in early February.
Yet, the visitors have been dominant away from home across all competitions in recent weeks. Five of their last six competitive trips have resulted in clean sheets.
Both sides are expected to go all out with no room for caution. Only a win keeps Lens’ hopes of a first Ligue 1 title alive. PSG are a scoring machine in full flow. Backing a goal fest offers sizable returns.
- Lens vs PSG Prediction 2: Over 4.5 total goals at odds of 3.56 on 1xBet
First-half stalemate
Lens were extremely cautious in their 1-0 win over Nantes, particularly in the first half. Les Sang et Or had an expected goals (xG) tally of 0.43 from six shots, with only two on target.
Pierre Sage’s men needed 16-year-old debutant Mezian Soares to rise to the occasion to keep the title race alive. Without him, PSG would’ve already been crowned champions. Lens also played out a goalless first half against Nice and failed to score against Brest the round before.
PSG were also quiet in the opening half against Brest, with Doue coming off the bench to seal a victory. Earlier this month against Lorient, they were held to a 1-1 first-half draw after Ibrahim Mbaye’s opener.
Both sides need to assert dominance early. A tight opening period is expected at the Bollaert-Delelis. The value lies in backing a first-half stalemate between the title contenders.
- Lens vs PSG Prediction 3: First-half draw at odds of 2.39 on 1xBet