One significant concern for Villa is their recent record against Liverpool. The Reds are unbeaten in their last 11 competitive meetings.
Best bets for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
- Aston Villa +1 (Handicap 3-Way) at odds of 1.35 with bet9ja
- Aston Villa (1st goal) at odds of 2.09 with bet9ja
- 2nd half (Half with most goals) at odds of 2.12 with bet9ja
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Aston Villa 1-1 Liverpool
- Goalscorers prediction - Aston Villa: Watkins - Liverpool: Gakpo
The battle for fourth place in the Premier League remains highly competitive, with fifth-placed Aston Villa hosting Arne Slot’s Liverpool on Friday evening.
Aston Villa have a Europa League final to contend with five days after this game. However, Unai Emery’s men know that a win over the Reds could set them up perfectly for the final with Freiburg in Istanbul. It would also confirm their finish inside the top five, guaranteeing a place in next season’s Champions League. This applies regardless of their performance in the Europa League final.
By their own recent high standards, Villa have experienced a decline in form during recent weeks. They currently have four fewer points than they did at this stage last season. Villa have also won just one of their last five Premier League games. They were held to a 2-2 draw by already-relegated Burnley on Sunday.
Liverpool have averaged two points per game from their last five league games. However, the Reds received a negative reaction from their supporters following their lacklustre 1-1 draw against an inconsistent Chelsea at the weekend. Liverpool’s away form has been inconsistent this season, averaging just 1.33 points per game. That’s a concern against a team averaging almost two (1.94) points per home game.
Probable lineups for Aston Villa vs Liverpool
Aston Villa expected lineup: Martinez, Maatsen, Mings, Konsa, Cash, Lindelof, Barkley, Rogers, McGinn, Tielemans, Watkins
Liverpool expected lineup: Mamardashvili, Jones, Kerkez, van Dijk, Gomez, Gravenberch, Mac Allister, Ngumoha, Szoboszlai, Frimpong, Gakpo
Backing Villa to avoid defeat on home turf
Villa have won or drawn in over 72% of their home games so far this season. We can back this outcome on Friday night at a probability of only 58.82%. Admittedly, the betting markets may assume that Villa will be focused on their Europa League final. However, a win here puts them in a strong position to tackle Freiburg.
When you consider that Liverpool have won just over 38.89% of their away games this season, this bet seems to offer even more value.
Liverpool also have an 11-game unbeaten streak to defend against Villa, but their inconsistency makes them difficult to read. The Reds are also likely to be without the services of Mo Salah, who is recovering from a hamstring injury.
- Aston Villa vs Liverpool Bet 1: Aston Villa +1 (Handicap 3-way) at odds of 1.35 with bet9ja
Value on Emery’s team to open the scoring
Villa have scored first in 61% of their home games so far this season. Meanwhile, Liverpool have conceded first in 50% of their away fixtures in 2025/26. Yet we can back Villa to take the lead at a probability of only 46.51% on Friday.
Based on the data alone, this is the best value play from our trio of Aston Villa vs Liverpool predictions. The Reds have conceded an average of 1.61 goals per away game so far this season, while Villa’s average is 1.11 goals conceded per home game. That’s below the league average for home games (1.23).
Liverpool have also lost three of their last four away games, aside from their historic Merseyside derby win at Everton.
- Aston Villa vs Liverpool Bet 2: Aston Villa (1st goal) at odds of 2.09 with bet9ja
Data suggests goals are far more likely after the interval
Given the goalscoring data for both sides, a high-scoring first half is unlikely. In fact, Liverpool have only scored in 28% of their away games in the first half. Aston Villa have only conceded in 44% of their home matches in the first half.
After the break, the match seems to open up for Liverpool. They’ve conceded at least one goal in 72% of their away games after half time. In addition, Villa have scored at least one second-half goal in 67% of their home matches.
Taking this into consideration, there is value in backing the second half to feature more goals than the first at an odds-against probability (48.78%).
- Aston Villa vs Liverpool Bet 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) at odds of 2.12 with bet9ja