There are currently nine players who have scored between five and eight goals. This keeps the race open, with plenty of other forwards in the mix.
| Serie A top goalscorer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lautaro Martinez | 2.70 |
| Christian Pulisic | 6.00 |
| Kenan Yildiz | 50.0 |
| Rasmus Hojlund | 13.0 |
| Ricardo Orsolini | 10.0 |
| Gianluca Scamacca | 35.0 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Lautaro Martinez
While Inter did reach the Champions League final, the 2024/25 season was not Martinez’s best on a personal level. He only scored 12 goals in 31 appearances in Serie A. That was his lowest return since his debut 2018/19 campaign in the Italian top flight.
However, at 28, Martinez should be in his prime. Having passed 20 goals in each of the previous three seasons, it’s likely last term was just a blip.
He has been directly involved in over 10 goals in each of the last seven seasons across Europe’s big five leagues. Only four players have managed that, including Kylian Mbappe, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane.
The Argentine has averaged a goal every 143 minutes in Serie A so far this season. With a World Cup on the horizon, he’ll be highly motivated to perform well for his club. He’s currently on course to score around 20 goals again.
Martinez’s underlying data is also strong. With 7.2 xG, he is second only to Moise Kean in this division. The Fiorentina frontman has been highly inefficient with only two goals, and he is not a serious candidate.
The Inter frontman also benefits from playing for the strongest attacking team in Italy. I Nerazzurri lead across a range of different offensive metrics. They’ve created 62 big chances, which is 22 more than any other club.
With few other contenders to even get close to 20 goals, Martinez is worthy of his status as the favourite. Backing him to finish as the top goalscorer seems to offer value with an implied probability of 40%.
Christian Pulisic
Second to Martinez in both the betting markets and current standings is Christian Pulisic. The Milan attacker has scored seven goals so far this season. That’s an outstanding return, given he’s only been on the pitch for 518 minutes.
Scoring at his current rate of a goal every 74 minutes, Pulisic could potentially surpass Martinez’s final tally should he stay fit. However, such a strike rate is unlikely for a player who has never finished with more than 12 league goals in his career.
In addition to scoring, Pulisic is tasked with creating opportunities for his teammates. The USA international has finished with 20 goal contributions in each of the last two seasons. He has managed 19 league assists since moving to Italy in 2023.
Pulisic is also massively outperforming his xG total of 3.5. Those factors suggest he will not finish as the top scorer in Serie A.
Ricardo Orsolini
After Martinez and Pulisic, there are three players currently given a 7.7% chance of finishing as Serie A’s top goalscorer. Bologna’s Ricardo Orsolini, Napoli’s Rasmus Hojlund, and Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz make up that trio.
Yildiz is having a brilliant season, but he’s not an outright striker. Meanwhile, Hojlund has never been prolific in front of goal, with 10 goals his best-ever league return. With only four Serie A goals so far this term, it’s hard to see him catching Martinez.
Orsolini seems to be a stronger candidate. He is currently only two goals behind the Inter striker, with a return of six from 15 appearances.
The 28-year-old ranks sixth in Serie A with 2.8 shots per game. His xG total of 5.4 is also the fourth highest.
Fresh from a 15-goal 2024/25 season, Orsolini offers value at his current odds. Should Martinez suffer an injury at any point, he’d become a very serious contender.
Gianluca Scamacca
Gianluca Scamacca stands out among the outside bets in the Serie A top goalscorer race. The Atalanta frontman is in great form, with four goals in his last three appearances in all competitions. He scored a brace in Serie A last weekend for the first time since October 2023.
Injuries limited Scamacca to just five minutes of league football last season. He took his time to get going this term too. However, his recent goal flurry suggests he is finally getting back to full fitness again.
The Italian striker is still only 26. If he can stay fit, there’s no reason why he can’t get back to his best level. Scamacca scored 16 times for unfancied Sassuolo in the 2021/22 Serie A season.
He also netted 12 times from just 17 league starts in his debut campaign with Atalanta. With an implied probability of 4.8%, he seems to be the value pick in the Serie A top goalscorer odds.