Arsenal are favourites for the Premier League title with only two matches left. Manchester City are in contention but rely on Arsenal dropping points.
| Team | Odds | Implied % Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.18 | 83.3 |
| Manchester City | 5.05 | 22.2 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Latest EPL odds & Market movers
- Arsenal lead by two points but have a marginally worse goal difference by one
- The Gunners appeared to have lost control of the title race a few weeks ago but have since recovered
- Manchester City briefly turned the title race around after beating Mikel Arteta’s side
- However, they slipped up against Everton and handed Arsenal the advantage back
- City are expected to win their final two games, but it may still not be enough
Team-by-team analysis: Top contenders for the English Premier League
1. Arsenal
Arsenal have won four of their five matches across all competitions since they were beaten by Manchester City. A fantastic response has seen them reach the final of the Champions League. Confidence will be high as they head into games against Burnley and Crystal Palace.
- Current odds:1.18
- Key argument FOR: With a two-point lead, they do have an advantage but also an easier final two fixtures.
- Key argument AGAINST: There are doubts over their mentality and whether they have the strength to see it through after finishing 2nd in each of the last three seasons.
- Our opinion: They should get the job done. Neither Burnley nor Palace have anything to play for anyway.
2. Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are in brilliant form. However, one result has cost them dearly. They’ve won all but one competitive game they’ve played since beating Mikel Arteta’s side in the Carabao Cup final. However, the draw with Everton means the title race is now out of their hands.
- Current odds: 5.05
- Key argument FOR: City have the experience and the big-game mentality. They’ve scored six without response in the last two games.
- Key argument AGAINST: Bournemouth and Aston Villa won’t be easy opponents, and the Cityzens are still playing catch-up.
- Our opinion: Ultimately, they should win both of their final games, but we don’t see Arsenal slipping up again.
Our prediction for the 2025–26 EPL
Arsenal’s odds after the weekend schedule and Manchester City's 3-0 win against Crystal Palace stand at 1.20. In terms of implied probability, that’s a 83.3% chance the Gunners will lift the Premier League title. The Cityzens now have just a 22.2% implied chance of leapfrogging the current leaders in the title race.
Pep Guardiola rested a number of key players, including Erling Haaland against Palace on Wednesday evening. They have an FA Cup final against Chelsea on the horizon, and that may be their best chance of landing another trophy. Those replacing the likes of Haaland, Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki did well in a convincing win to keep the pressure on Arsenal.
The Gunners, meanwhile, overcame West Ham United in the most recent fixture. However, it wasn’t as straightforward as it required a last-minute VAR check in their favour. Mikel Arteta’s men haven’t been at their best, but they are still finding ways to win.
With Manchester now having played their games in hand, both sides have two matches remaining. Arsenal face Burnley at home and Crystal Palace away, while City travel to Bournemouth before hosting Aston Villa. There’s no doubt that, on paper at least, the London side have the easier run-in.
With Arsenal’s 1x2 market price against Burnley implying a 92% chance of probability, the bookies believe the Palace fixture could decide things. Elsewhere, City’s 60% implied probability of a win against the Cherries suggests three points won’t be as straightforward as some might think. Andoni Iraola’s men are pushing for a European spot, and the Cityzens have an FA Cup final beforehand.
Regardless of what Guardiola’s side do, if Arsenal win both of their remaining games, they will be crowned champions. They’re well-positioned going into their final two fixtures, and key players have returned from injury. The bookmakers' odds suggest they will finally be named champions of England.
How to read Premier League winner odds
If you are new to sports betting, looking at Premier League winner odds can feel like trying to solve a complex puzzle. This section breaks down everything you need to know about betting on the Premier League outright market, how odds formats work, and when to place your wagers.
1. What are outright / futures odds?
When you look at Premier League winner odds, you are looking at an outright market.
- Definition: Outright bets involve wagering on the overall winner of the league after all 38 matches have been played, rather than the result of a single game.
- Timing: You can place an outright bet before the season kicks off in August, or at any point during the season (even now, as we approach the final "run-in" in April or May).
- Duration: Unlike match betting—where your bet is settled in 90 minutes—an outright bet stays active as long as your chosen team is mathematically capable of winning the title. If they lift the trophy in May, your bet wins.
2. How to read the three odds formats
Depending on your sportsbook, odds are displayed in three main ways. They all represent the same potential payout. Let’s use Arsenal (the current favorites) as our example.
- Decimal (1.15) — Popular Internationally: This represents the total return for every unit wagered, including your stake.
- Example: If you bet $10 on Arsenal at 1.15, your total return is $11.50 ($1.50 profit + $10 stake).
- Fractional (1/7) — Popular in the UK: This shows your potential profit relative to your stake (Profit / Stake).
- Example: At 1/7, for every $7 you bet, you win $1 in profit. A $7 bet returns $8 total.
- American / Moneyline (-650) — Popular in the US: A minus sign (-) indicates how much you must bet to make $100 profit.
- Example: -650 means you must wager $650 to win $100 in profit. (Conversely, a plus sign like +550 for Man City means a $100 bet yields $550 profit).
3. Why do odds change?
The Premier League market is highly volatile and reacts to weekly events:
- Match results: If Arsenal win while Man City drop points, Arsenal's odds will "shorten" (lower payout), while City's will "lengthen" (higher payout).
- The "Run-In" schedule: Odds shift based on fixture difficulty. If a contender has an "easy" remaining schedule on paper, their odds will be lower than a team facing three "Big Six" opponents in a row.
- Injuries & suspensions: If a critical player like Erling Haaland or Martin Ødegaard is sidelined, that team's odds will immediately lengthen.
- Transfer windows: Significant January signings (like a new star striker) can cause a team's title odds to crash mid-season.
5. Early vs. late betting — When should you place your bet?
- Betting early (August/September): This offers the highest potential rewards. In August 2025, you might have found Liverpool at +180; by April, those odds look very different. You get "value" before the season’s narrative is written, but you face the highest risk of injuries or poor form.
- Betting late (April/May): You have more certainty. You know the injury lists, the points gap, and the momentum of each squad. However, the payouts are significantly smaller because the "market" has already figured out who the true contenders are.
Disclaimer: Betting involves financial risk. Please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help through your local or national responsible gambling organizations.