Our five picks highlight trends like high BTTS returns, high combined goals (GF/GA), significant xG underperformance, and many more.
| Bet based on goals data | Odds |
| Burnley vs Chelsea - BTTS - No | 1.851 |
| Man Utd vs Everton - over 2.5 goals | 1.814 |
| Brighton vs Brentford - BTTS - Yes | 1.59 |
| Wolves vs Crystal Palace - 1x2 - Crystal Palace | 2.093 |
| Arsenal vs Tottenham - +1.5 Tottenham Asian handicap | 1.791 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Turf Moor drought
Burnley made a strong return to the Premier League. However, two consecutive defeats left them 17th in the division, level on points with West Ham, who beat them before the international break.
Burnley have displayed a clear pattern at Turf Moor this term, as they have struggled to find the back of the net in 40% of their Premier League home fixtures. Moreover, it’s worth noting that both teams have failed to score in 80% of Burnley’s home matches.
Their scoring difficulties at home contrast sharply with their away form. The newcomers saw goals at both ends in five of their last six away games, while four of their last five home fixtures featured goals for only one team or none at all.
Those statistics have likely encouraged the opposition, especially since Chelsea have kept clean sheets in 40% of their away league matches. Additionally, the Blues enter this game having kept three clean sheets in their previous four games across all venues.
Furthermore, Burnley’s last five league matches at Turf Moor have featured fewer than three goals in total. These matches tend to be low-scoring affairs in which the home side struggle to find the back of the net.
Amorim’s defensive woes
Man United have shown signs of returning to their old form, especially in attack. They’ve improved their scoring average from 1.16 last term to 1.73 this season. Despite their excellent work, they have just three more points at this stage than they had last season.
The problem for Ruben Amorim’s men is that they concede just as much. At 73%, Man United and Brighton are tied for the most league games in which both teams scored. It’s also worth noting that the Red Devils’ matches feature a total goals average of 3.36, which is the most in the division.
Their last four consecutive games have featured goals at both ends, a trend that the manager urgently hopes to discontinue. However, achieving this may be difficult, as they have kept clean sheets in only 9% of their 11 games this season.
The Red Devils have the highest GF and GA combination per game in the division. United leads the league in goals per game this season, at 3.36, which is a concern. Their next opponents, Everton, have yet to keep a clean sheet in any of their away matches.
The Toffees’ average GF and GA combined in their away dates this season is 2.60. While this figure is not as high as the hosts’, it’s evident that Everton’s away matches feature goals. This suggests that Monday night’s match at Old Trafford will also see plenty of goals.
Entertainment on the South Coast
As mentioned above, Brighton and Man United hold the joint record for the highest percentage of Premier League games where both teams scored. They’ve been on a run of seven consecutive games in which both teams got onto the scoresheet. On top of that, Brighton have a trend of scoring and conceding at home.
Fabian Hurzeler eagerly hopes that his men have stopped that trend indefinitely. The Seagulls have kept clean sheets in their last two fixtures. With a combined GF and GA of 2.91 per game, goals are usually expected in Brighton’s fixtures.
They’ve conceded almost as many as they’ve scored this term (GF17, GA15), which is why there is value in backing them. Notably, 80% of their league meetings at the Amex Stadium saw goals for both teams.
The hosts have kept clean sheets in only 18% of their overall league fixtures and 20% of their home games. While they have never failed to score in front of their fans, the concern is that opponents have scored in 80% of their home games.
The history between these clubs suggests that both teams will find the net. Two goalless draws in 2024 are offset by two games in which both teams have scored.
Palace’s underlying excellence
According to FBref’s statistics, Crystal Palace boast the third-best xG in the Premier League. They’ve registered an xG of 19.0 after 11 games, which is just behind Manchester City’s 19.3 and Chelsea’s 20.4 xG records.
However, despite this promising data, the Eagles are the biggest xG underperformers in the league. They’ve scored just 14 goals in the league, resulting in a -5.28 xG deficit. While they are successfully creating chances and taking shots, they are not scoring goals from those opportunities.
The Londoners will aim to lose their status as the biggest underperformers in their Premier League clash against Wolverhampton Wanderers. Having scored 7 and let in 25 goals, Wolves are ranked bottom for both goals scored and conceded. Therefore, it’s unsurprising that they’ve only secured two points, the fewest of any team.
They have failed to keep a clean sheet at home this season, increasing Palace’s chances of taking advantage of a weakened defence. Additionally, the hosts have conceded a minimum of three goals in each of their last four outings.
While Palace will create chances, as their xG indicates, they may be able to secure a narrow win, given that they're not capitalising on them. The Eagles scored at least two goals in their last two visits to Molineux, so the same outcome is likely in this match.
Spurs’ away day joy
From xG underperformers to the complete opposite. Tottenham have been overperforming in terms of their xG. Currently, they have an xG of 11.09, but the Spurs have scored 19 goals, surpassing their underlying data by +7.91.
Most people expect xG to even out. That's usually the case over a longer period of time, but we’re looking at a smaller scale for Spurs. Some teams do routintely and regularly outperform xG over a lengthy period.
We must also look at Spurs’ away form. Thomas Frank’s men have surprisingly performed on the road than they have at home. They're undefeated in their five away matches this term. Moreover, they have scored more goals away from home (12) than at home (7).
Spurs have an average of 2.40 goals on their travels, which sets up a thrilling North London Derby when the Premier League returns. Arsenal have the best defence in the division, having conceded five goals all season.
However, Sunderland recently showed that there are weaknesses in their defence that can be exploited. Tottenham can be encouraged, especially since they came behind after conceding a goal to secure a 2-2 draw with Manchester United.
Tottenham have scored in every league game on the road this season and have netted a minimum of two goals in their last two outings. This could be the most competitive North London Derby for some time. It might be worth backing Spurs to keep outperforming their underlying data.