While Verona and Pisa appear highly likely to face relegation to Serie B, the third and final relegation position remains undecided.
| Serie A Relegation Market | Odds |
| Lecce | 2.5 |
| Cremonese | 2.75 |
| Genoa | 1.225 |
| Fiorentina | 1.011 |
| Parma | 5.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Why Serie A survival looks like a tall order for Cremonese
Cremonese ARE currently enduring a difficult period. They’ve failed to secure a league victory since early December and scored in only three of their last 11 matches. Consequently, the situation for the team under manager Davide Nicola appears critical.
The club started the season effectively, winning three of their first nine matches and suffering only one defeat. By late October, some Serie A pundits were tipping Cremonese for a top-half finish.
However, since their home win over Lecce on December 7, their form has declined significantly. The margins haven’t been going in their favour and Nicola’s side have fallen down the table to within three points of the relegation zone.
According to Opta’s expected points (xPTS) data, Cremonese should be second bottom. Interestingly, bottom club Verona and second-bottom Pisa both have higher xPTS than Cremonese with 28.5 and 27.6, respectively.
This data suggests that Cremonese are failing to create high-quality scoring opportunities while conceding too many dangerous chances.
The upcoming fixture list is also challenging, which supports the decision to back them now in the Serie A relegation market. Their next two matches are against Roma and AC Milan, followed by pivotal fixtures against direct rivals Lecce and Fiorentina.
The only positive for Davide Nicola is their run-in after the double-header with Roma and AC Milan. In fact, they only play one more side in the top four between March 1 and May 24. There are several games in April against sides who could have little to play for.
This likely explains their odds-against probability in the betting markets. However, unless their underlying xG and xGA data start to improve, La Cremo’s position will likely continue to weaken.
They average 2.08 xGA away from home but concede only 1.38 goals per away game. A return to statistical averages could result in significant difficulties during March and April.
Assessing Cremonese’s main relegation rivals
According to the betting markets, Lecce and Genoa are Cremonese’s closest contenders for that third and final relegation spot.
Lecce are considered primary candidates because their xPTS of 24 places them at the bottom of the rankings. Lecce have managed just 17 goals in 25 Serie A matches.
However, they are greatly underperforming their xG, scoring at a rate of 0.68 goals per game versus 1.13 xG. This trend is even more evident in home matches, where their xG is 1.24, yet they score only 0.69 in front of their own fans.
The schedule for Lecce remains difficult in the near term. They face Inter and Como before their six-pointer with Cremonese in early March. That’s followed by back-to-back trips to Napoli and Roma.
In April, the team face challenging fixtures against Atalanta and Bologna, as well as a match against fellow relegation candidates Fiorentina.
Regarding Genoa, a 20% win rate continues to complicate their season. However, their xPTS of nearly 33 suggests they should not be involved in a relegation struggle. Instead, they should occupy tenth place in the Serie A xPTS table.
Their upcoming fixtures are varied. They face a Torino side that continue to struggle to score, followed by a clash with title favourites Inter.
However, their schedule from mid-March to late April appears more favourable, featuring games against Hellas Verona, Udinese, Sassuolo, and Pisa.
Fiorentina’s standing in the relegation battle
Fiorentina failed to record a Serie A victory until December 21 and have been attempting to recover their position since then. However, they have lost only two of their last eight league matches, which has moved them to within three points of safety.
Their recent 2-1 away win against Como demonstrated the squad’s potential. Fiorentina’s next four games could be pivotal. They face second-bottom Pisa next, where a win could further increase the gap between themselves and the bottom two.
They then face bottom-half sides Udinese and Parma, before their six-pointer with Cremonese. It is possible for the team to win three of these next four fixtures.
Reports suggest that La Viola may prioritize their Serie A survival over their participation in the Europa Conference League. Midweek European matches have often been a distraction for Fiorentina this season.
After their 2-1 win over Dynamo Kyiv in December, they immediately lost 2-1 at home to bottom club Verona. A disjointed showing handed Verona their only away win of the season so far.
Fiorentina’s run-in in May is challenging. They face Roma, Juventus, and Atalanta in three of their last four games. Consequently, they remain a candidate for relegation if they fail to secure a sufficient number of points during March.