A haul of 39 points in the Premier League would have been enough to survive in 14 successive seasons prior to 2025/26. Can West Ham bounce back?
| 26-27 Championship winner market | Odds |
| West Ham | 2.74 |
| Wolves | 6.48 |
| Middlesbrough | 11.10 |
| Burnley | 11.00 |
| Southampton | 15.00 |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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West Ham among the Championship’s promotion favourites
Relegation sometimes sends a club into the Championship with lasting structural damage. West Ham’s drop from the 2025/26 Premier League looks different. They posted a 39-point season that left them only two points behind Tottenham.
They also finished miles clear of Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers. Burnley and Wolves will likely be two of the Hammers’ main title rivals in the Championship, alongside Southampton and Middlesbrough.
West Ham were unlucky to suffer the Premier League drop
West Ham ended their Premier League campaign with 10 wins, nine draws and 19 defeats. They managed 46 goals scored and 65 conceded across 38 matches.
For an 18th-placed side, that is a much narrower relegation line than the table usually shows in recent seasons. Tottenham survived on 41 points, while Burnley finished on 22 and Wolves on 20.
The attacking numbers are the first reason: West Ham are still serious contenders from a promotion angle. West Ham generated 46.55 xG (expected goals), took 416 shots and hit 152 on target, finishing with 46 goals. That is not the profile of a side that simply could not compete at Premier League level.
The bigger problem was at the other end. West Ham conceded 65 times and made 19 defensive errors. This alone goes a long way towards explaining why decent attacking output still ended in relegation.
The attack was broadly functional, with defensive issues proving to be the main weakness. Dropping into the Championship should therefore give West Ham a platform to appear more dangerous than most teams in the division.
A later 35-game window from the start of September reinforces that view. West Ham posted nine wins, nine draws and 42 goals in that spell. That’s a return much closer to Tottenham’s level than that of Burnley or Wolves.
Because of that, this does not read like a classic bottom-three collapse carrying straight into the second tier.
Bowen gives the Hammers genuine attacking quality in the final third
Jarrod Bowen is the biggest reason to take West Ham seriously before the Championship season begins on 14 August. The captain started all 38 league matches last season, played 3,403 minutes and produced nine goals with 11 assists. He also finished as the Hammers’ leading league scorer.
His decision to stick around speaks volumes for the Hammers’ promotion ambitions. Bowen’s underlying numbers matter as much as the headline return.
Bowen took 80 shots, put 29 on target and generated 7.81 xG. That underlines how heavily West Ham relied on him in attacking areas.
Keeping that kind of Premier League-level focal point is a major head start for a team trying to bounce back.
Bowen has also made the objective clear. His main motivation is to get West Ham back to the Premier League. The decision to stay followed talks with Daniel Křetínský and Jiří Švarc - the club’s most prominent shareholders - about the club’s direction.
That gives West Ham more than just talent at the top end of the pitch. It gives them continuity and a clear dressing-room reference point.
There is a wider strategic context too. Křetínský’s planned purchase of the Gold family’s 25.1% stake increased his holding without taking it beyond 50%. This therefore represents greater influence at the club rather than a full ownership change.
West Ham emerge as early Championship title contenders
The transfer situation makes the case less straightforward. Mateus Fernandes’ £85m move to Tottenham and the sale of Crysencio Summerville create obvious financial room for reinvestment. Very few relegated teams can generate £150m+ in player sales within weeks of going down.
Naturally, those sales remove quality and production from a squad that still need repair. Money in the bank is only useful if the replacements are good enough.
That is why West Ham look like a strong early winner watchlist team rather than a blind pre-season bet. A lot rests on their recruitment matching the resources now available - and retaining other key players. If this happens, West Ham should have a very strong chance of mounting an immediate return challenge.