The Bundesliga paused for the final international break following an incredible number of goals. We anticipate another high-scoring weekend.
| Betting markets | Odds |
|---|---|
Freiburg vs Bayern Munich - Bayern to win & Over 3.5 total goals | 2.83 |
Borussia Monchengladbach vs Heidenheim - BTTS Yes & Over 2.5 total goals | 1.88 |
Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund - Dortmund to win or draw & Over 3.5 total goals | 2.95 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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The weekend that defines the season
Bundesliga Matchday 27 was unlike any this season. Exactly 40 goals were scored, which is the highest total of any round so far. For a league that averages 3.19 goals per game, this was a significant statement.
Only one fixture featured fewer than 2.5 goals: Werder Bremen’s 1-0 victory against a 10-man Wolfsburg team. Every other match featured a high number of goals. Augsburg hosted Stuttgart and suffered a 5-2 defeat in a game that saw seven goals. The visitors scored all three opening goals in the first period. RB Leipzig got off to another strong start, scoring four goals in the first half in their 5-0 victory against Hoffenheim.
Heidenheim recorded an exciting three-goal comeback during the second half to secure a 3-3 draw against Bayer Leverkusen. Frank Schmidt’s players secured a crucial point in their fight to avoid relegation. They currently occupy the last position in the top division.
Another closely contested match with the exact same scoreline occurred in the 100th Rhine derby between Koln and Borussia Monchengladbach. The crowd at the RheinEnergieStadion watched their team secure a late draw, although they remain winless across seven matches.
Bayern Munich defeated Union Berlin 4-0. The record German champions now require only four more victories to confirm their second consecutive league title. Perennial runners-up Borussia Dortmund, who sit nine points behind Bayern, came from behind to beat Hamburg 3-2.
Freiburg produced a late two-goal comeback via Igor Matanovic to beat St. Pauli 2-1. Mainz narrowly defeated Frankfurt by the same scoreline, following Paul Nebel’s 89th-minute winning goal.
The round before the last had seen nine of nine games feature under 2.5 goals for the first time all season. However, the league’s true colours were revealed on Matchday 27. This is a league where goals are a core part of the identity. The last three campaigns have featured a high scoring rate, with this one featuring 3.19 goals on average per game.
Now, the focus shifts to the next round of fixtures, as the competition for points increases during the final stages of the season.
The international break has allowed players to physically and mentally recover. However, the statistical trends that produced that high volume of goals remain present. The following three fixtures provide the strongest indications of another high-scoring weekend.
Bundesliga produces high-scoring matches
Bayern Munich are pursuing a historical record. They have scored 97 goals across 27 matches, just four away from their own Bundesliga record of 101 set in 1971/72. A goal difference of +72 highlights their complete dominance. They have now scored four or more goals in four of their previous five fixtures.
Vincent Kompany’s team travel to play Freiburg knowing that Real Madrid await them in the Champions League quarter-finals. However, they have been exceptionally dominant away from home, remaining unbeaten in competitive away matches since November. Seven of their last eight away games have seen both teams score.
Freiburg are difficult opponents at the Europa-Park Stadion, having suffered defeat only twice across 13 league matches at their home stadium. However, the memory of their heavy 6-2 defeat at the Allianz Arena in the reverse fixture is still fresh. That result was their 15th defeat across 20 previous meetings against Bayern Munich. We expect Bayern to return to Munich with all three points and for the match to produce multiple goals.
Borussia Monchengladbach sit in 13th position, five points above the relegation zone. Heidenheim are bottom with 15 points, nine behind the relegation play-off position. Both have defensive vulnerabilities that make goals highly probable.
Gladbach return from the international break following an intense Rhine derby against Koln, where they secured a point in a 3-3 draw following Eric Martel’s late goal. Three of their last five matches have produced over 2.5 total goals. They have conceded 46 goals across 27 league fixtures, which provides evidence of a defence that can be overcome.
Heidenheim held Bayer Leverkusen to a 3-3 draw in their last match, also securing a point following a second-half comeback. The side from Baden-Wurttemberg have conceded the joint-most goals across Europe’s top-five leagues (61). In total, 18 of their 27 matches this term featured over 2.5 total goals this term.
Gladbach are undefeated in seven competitive meetings with Heidenheim. Die Fohlen have won the last three in succession, scoring exactly three each time. Both teams are conceding frequently, and Gladbach have a perfect attacking record against Heidenheim. Therefore, there is value in backing both to score in a high-scoring encounter.
Borussia Dortmund are pursuing second place with 61 points, eight ahead of Stuttgart. Both sides tend to score freely. Dortmund are the league’s second-highest scorers with 58 goals, whereas Stuttgart are close behind with 56.
Stuttgart scored five goals against Augsburg during a dominant 5-2 away victory before the international break. Over 3.5 total goals have been recorded in 13 of their 27 league matches, with four of their previous five games exceeding that total. Two of their last three home fixtures have also produced the same outcome.
Dortmund produced an impressive comeback against Hamburg, scoring three goals during the final 17 minutes to recover from a two-goal deficit. Four of their previous six competitive matches have featured over 3.5 total goals. Two of their last four matches against Stuttgart have seen at least six goals.
Die Borussen have recovered their motivation following their defeat against Bayern Munich three weeks ago. We expect them to return home with at least one point.
The Bundesliga produced 40 goals before the international break. There is no logical reason to expect the entertainment to stop now.