A record points deduction for City this season could shake up the Premier League table at both ends.
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Unprecedented punishment could relegate Manchester City
Man City deny all wrongdoing and plan to appeal the guilty verdict. Under new Premier League rules, the process must be completed within 12 weeks. That means a final decision is expected soon, with a hearing due before Christmas 2026.
There have been significant shifts in the Premier League outright markets that reflect the uncertainty of the situation. City’s title odds have drifted, but they remain the second favourites behind Arsenal. At the same time, they are the fourth favourites for relegation, behind only the three newly promoted clubs.
That creates a fascinating and totally unique situation when it comes to betting on the Premier League. On-field events are only part of the story and the final ruling could have an impact on all 20 clubs.
City are the current leaders, having won all five matches so far under Enzo Maresca. Their flawless start suggests they could comfortably exceed the 71 and 78-point hauls of the past two seasons. However, those results would count for little if they were expelled from the Premier League over serious financial breaches.
That is one potential punishment, but it would leave the Premier League facing questions about how to continue the season with 19 clubs. The Premier League could instead opt to apply an unprecedented points deduction, which may lead to the same outcome.
The club’s strategy of pleading innocence and fighting all charges could ultimately contribute to a more severe punishment if the appeal fails. That suggests Man City could offer value in the relegation market at odds implying a 38% probability. Their strong start could make them an even more attractive option at longer odds.
Based on our internal projection, they’d still have an implied 53% chance of relegation should a 50-point penalty be applied. That figure would rise to 76% with a 55-point deduction and 93% at 60 points.
If the objective of the punishment is to guarantee they are relegated, an even heftier sanction could apply. A 65-point penalty would see City’s implied relegation probability increased to 98%. Meanwhile, a 70-point deduction would give them a 99.9% chance of playing Championship football next term.
Who could benefit from City’s legal turmoil at the bottom
Several other clubs near the bottom of the table will be watching the Man City verdict closely. A heavy points deduction could guarantee City’s relegation and keep at least one promoted club up.
That could offer fresh hope to Coventry, Hull and Ipswich, who have just come up from the second tier. The Tigers have made the fastest start, but a 2-1 defeat at Newcastle last time out may have slowed their momentum. Despite sitting in eighth place, they rank in the bottom five with their xPTS (expected points) tally of 5.1.
Of the three favourites for the drop, Ipswich seem best equipped to profit from a penalty applied to City. They are competing well on the pitch and currently find themselves in 11th place with a three-point advantage over the bottom three.
In contrast to Hull, the Tractor Boys are actually underperforming their xPTS total of 7.0. That suggests Gary O'Neil’s men can compete at this level.
Should Hull fade and Coventry continue to languish at the bottom, Ipswich will have a great chance of staying up. Given that City’s eventual deduction could exceed 50 points, the Suffolk club look like the value bet to survive.
Why the Seagulls could soar to a top-six finish
Clubs fighting for European places will also be contemplating how the final verdict could impact them. Even if Man City received a less severe points penalty, that could still leave them out of Champions League contention. An outright European ban is another potential punishment that could be applied.
City are not the only big club that could struggle this term. Aston Villa are in transition, Spurs are rock bottom and Newcastle currently rank 20th with their tally of 4.1 xPTS. That suggests at least one of the Premier League’s outsiders could finish in the top six.
Brentford and Brighton are currently riding high. The Bees have no European distractions, but the Seagulls would also likely focus more on securing a top-five finish than on the Conference League.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side were outstanding last time out as they beat reigning champions Arsenal 3-0. They had 17 shots and created three big chances against a usually solid Gunners defence.
Brighton have created 11.5 xG (expected goals) this season, which is the highest figure in the Premier League. They are also the top scorers with 16 goals.
They may lack the consistency and squad depth to compete for the title. However, in such an unusual season, qualifying for the Champions League is a real possibility.
At the very least, Brighton look to offer great value as an odds-against bet to finish in the top six. For much bigger potential returns, backing the Seagulls to make the top four could also be worth the additional risk.