Only one of the current top three in Ligue 1 finished in a Champions League spot last term. This offers bettors a chance to back other worthy picks.
| Market | Selection | Odds |
Ligue 1 top 3 finish | Monaco | 1.90 |
| Lille | 2.00 | |
| Lyon | 3.00 | |
| Rennes | 3.00 | |
| Lens | 3.50 | |
| Marseille | 7.00 | |
| Paris FC | 11.00 | |
| Strasbourg | 15.00 |
Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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Lille - the big overperformers
Davide Ancelotti must be thrilled with how his team have reacted since he replaced Bruno Genesio in the dugout, as they top the standings. They’ve conceded just two goals in four games, but their xGA (expected goals against) of 7.60 suggests that they’ve been lucky.
Real Betis put three past them in the Champions League and were more clinical than Ligue 1 opposition.
The reality is that Lille's early lead looks fragile once the underlying data is brought into the picture. This means their spot at the top is far from secure. According to Opta’s expected points table, Les Dogues should be 13th in the division with 4.5 points. Their actual tally is more than twice the model’s projection.
Bear in mind that this data isn’t a replacement for the actual league table. It pulls important stats from their performances and acts as a warning sign when a team’s points tally is running well ahead of its underlying performances.
Their xGA is the seventh-highest in Ligue 1, while their 70 shots faced are only two fewer than Le Mans’ 72, which is the worst in the division. They’ve been lucky in that only 17 or 24% of those shots were on target. Meanwhile, the conversion percentage of shots to goals against them is only 2.86%, the lowest in the league.
Additionally, their average of 34 clearances per match puts them first in the league in that regard. Lille’s goalkeeper Berke Ozer has had to make 14 saves in four matches, ranking him seventh. All the data points to a side that have been riding their luck, not a team that can sustain a top-three fight all season.
Monaco - signs to be wary of
Monaco finished seventh in Ligue 1 last term, but they have also shown some of the same warning signs as Lille. Their headline result this season was their 2-1 win over PSG, but the underlying numbers from that match were far less convincing.
PSG recorded an xG of 2.32 compared to Monaco’s 0.51 on the day, but the Monegasques scored with their only two shots on target.
The expected points table places Monaco eighth on 5.4 points, yet they’ve overperformed that by a massive 4.6 points. Like Lille, they also conceded just twice from an xGA of 5.39, which is 3.59 fewer than the underlying data suggests.
Filipe Luis’ charges have also conceded 18 shots, the joint-fifth most in Ligue 1. They average 30.5 clearances per match, third in the division. Meanwhile, their average of 23 tackles per match is also the highest across the entire league.
They haven’t been convincing in the attacking third, with an xG of 4.86, the third-lowest in Ligue 1. They have also registered 42 shots in four games. Only Le Mans have recorded fewer, with 40.
Still, we can’t dismiss their progress, as their 2-0 triumph over Marseille was a strong result. However, the data serves as a reminder that 10 points from four games can flatter a team when the underlying quality is this thin.
Rennes - far from top-three numbers
Rennes complete the current top three, but they have similar problems. Opta places them 11th in the expected points table with five points, a tally which they’ve doubled.
Their chance creation numbers are healthier than Lille’s or Monaco’s, with an xG of 7.42. However, they’ve produced an xGA of 8.22 going the other way. Unlike the other two, Rennes have shipped five goals in four games, still overperforming by 3.22.
That’s not the profile of a side that have clearly separated themselves from the chasing pack.
The chasing pack
Lens finished as runners-up last season, but they’ve also experienced uncertainty with the club parting ways with head coach Dino Toppmöller. They’re currently 10th with four points, but the expected points table has them up to sixth with 6.4 points. Yannick Cahuzac will now oversee the club for the rest of the campaign.
His men already boast the best xG in Ligue 1 at 10.26, but they’ve underperformed in that area, scoring only eight goals. Their 62 shots rank them fifth in the league, suggesting there are encouraging signs that they can move away from mid-table.
Marseille should actually be three places higher than 13th according to Opta. Their defensive record needs improvement, particularly from set pieces. The two goals they have conceded from such situations place them among the bottom three in Ligue 1. OM finished fifth last season, just two points away from third place.
Paris FC and Strasbourg shouldn’t be discounted, especially with their respective xG of 7.77 and 6.29 placing them fourth and eighth in Ligue 1. In the expected points table, the capital club sit second with 8.7 points, which means they are about where they belong in the standings currently.
It’s worth noting that in the past three seasons, five different teams have finished in either second or third place in France. Considering that most of these teams have to contend with Europe, it’s unlikely for them to continue with the early momentum they’ve built.
As a result, the value for bettors to explore is in the chasing pack. Lyon's underlying metrics make them the standout value proposition to break into the top three.